1/ Thread: $GOOG 1Q’21 Update

Hey Google, what’s the best business capitalism has ever come up with?

Google: It’s our search business.

Here are my highlights from the earnings call and quarter.
2/ I was starting to think the days of 25% topline growth were the stories from the yesteryears.

Well, Q1 revenues grew by 34%!

GOOG's *annual* topline in 2013 was $55 Bn. They just did the same in a quarter.

Search, YouTube, Cloud: GOOG is really firing on all cylinders here
3/ Operating income more than doubled and margin expanded by a whopping ~1,000 bps.

This was driven by ~800 bps margin expansion in Services, and massive improvement in GCP’s operating losses.
4/ What are the drivers for Google search?

I. Number of queries
II. Percentage of queries that have commercial potential
III. Click-through rates
IV. Cost Per Click (CPC)

Difficult to see how any of these drivers will be down in 3/5/10 years from now.
5/ 77% respondents say they used YouTube to learn a new skill during 2020. Violative view rate* is down 70% (now 16-18 views per 100k views) over the last 4 years.

*It is the % of total views on YouTube videos that eventually get removed because of YouTube’s policy violations.
6/ “With over 2 billion monthly logged in users and over 1 billion hours of video watched every day, YouTube is offering advertisers efficient reach to large audiences”

“more 18- to 49-year-olds are actually watching YouTube than all linear TV combined.”
7/ “DR was practically nonexistent on YouTube a few years ago. And it's now a large and fast-growing business, and we're just getting started, in my view.”

“And I think we're still scratching the surface on what's possible really with commercial intent on YouTube”
8/ “for Google Cloud, our approach to building the business has not changed. We remain focused on revenue growth, and we will continue to invest aggressively in products and our go-to-market organization given the opportunity we see.”
9/ Google will continue to invest in office space and will hire 10k people in 2021.

“We are looking at less density per employee. So even with a hybrid work environment, we will continue to need space.”
10/ Google buyback has increased >10x in just three years. Plenty of dry powder left.

Shareholders will sleep tight tonight.

End/ I will cover $SHOP and $FB tomorrow.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

30 Apr
1/ $AMZN 1Q’21 Update

By now, it is no surprise that Amazon would post another Amazing quarter, but the growth/margin in international (+60%) and ads/other (+77%) still raised my eyebrows.

Let’s look at segment by segment and some highlights from the call.
2/ But first here’s the breakdown of revenue by segment (both product and geography)

The real surprise was how international operating margin increased from -2.6% in 1Q’20 to +4.1% in 1Q’21. That’s +670 bps margin improvement vs NA’s +260 bps during the same time. ImageImage
3/ One of my concerns was whether Amazon can mimic its success in NA to international markets as well.

Looking at the operating leverage and the pace of improvement, this looks much better than I anticipated. Image
Read 12 tweets
29 Apr
1/ $FB 1Q'21 Update

I have been told “nobody uses Facebook”.
Last quarter, 1.88 Bn “nobody” used Facebook daily.

Lots of interesting data points and snippets on this call. Here are my notes.
2/ Numbers in this quarter was a thing of beauty (perhaps applies to all big tech). They are making quite a mockery of “law of large numbers”.

FB’s 2016 *annual* topline was $27 Bn. Wow!

Acceleration in VR (other)+ overall revenue growth+ operating leverage make you drool. Image
3/ DAU +8% YoY; MAU +10%; Family DAP +15%
# of impressions +12%, avg price/ad +30%

Zuck highlighted three topics on the call:
I. AR/VR
II. Social Commerce
III. Creator Economy
Read 16 tweets
28 Apr
1/ Thread: $SHOP 1Q’21 Update

Shopify is a special company trying to solve the ABC of commerce on the internet for everyone. And it is run by deeply competent leader(s).

I’m not a shareholder, so it must be true.

Here are my highlights from the latest quarter.
2/ “A platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it, exceeds the value of the company that creates it. Then it’s a platform.”-Bill Gates

Merchants generated $307B, and its partners made $12B. SHOP’s revenue in 2020 was $2.9B. Like I said, it’s a special company. Image
3/ Both GMV and revenue more than doubled as broader e-commerce penetration remains elevated.

Subscription Solution +71% YoY
Merchant solution +137% YoY
Gross Payments Volume (GPV) 46% of GMV (vs 42% in 1Q’21)
Read 12 tweets
20 Apr
1/8 Thread: Phil Fisher's investing philosophy

If Ben Graham popularized "value investing", Phil Fisher was the OG of "growth investing". Buffett even characterized his philosophy as "85% Graham and 15% Fisher".

Just read a good piece on Fisher. Some quick notes.
2/8 Here's how Fisher defined "growth company". The last point really stands out:

"the advantage cannot be meaningfully gauged with numbers and mathematical formulas."
3/8 "no investment philosophy, unless it is just a carbon copy of someone else’s approach, develops in its complete form in any day or year. In my own case, it grew over a considerable period of time"
Read 8 tweets
15 Apr
1/ Thread: $AMZN 2020 Shareholder Letter

This is Bezos' last letter as CEO of Amazon. I have been saying this for a while: Buffett and Bezos are two best business writers of our time.

It truly is a fitting letter to end Bezos' tenure. Here are my highlights.
2/ "...more than 7/8ths of the shares, representing $1.4 trillion of wealth creation, are owned by others. Who are they? ...they’re Mary and Larry, who sent me this note out of the blue just as I was sitting down to write this shareholder letter"
3/ One of the best arguments in favor of capitalism is this opportunity for Mary and Larry to participate in the wealth creation machine by an inventive, ambitious, and motivated strangers.

It's not just family office and hedge funds. Let's not forget the "Mary and Larry".
Read 17 tweets
14 Apr
1/ Thread: Market-Expected Return on Investment (MEROI)

@mjmauboussin and Dan Callahan published their new piece today on MEROI. Regular followers know I'm a big fan of Mauboussin and a big believer of expectations investing approach.

Let's dig into the new piece.
2/ A company's valuation is just sum of two things:

Steady-State Value (SSV) + Present Value of Growth Opportunities (PVGO)

SSV = NOPAT capitalized by Cost of Capital

PVGO depends on three things...
3/
a. the spread between ROIC and Cost of Capital
b. how much a company can invest
c. how long a company can find value-creating opportunities

Calculating SSV is more straight forward, but PVGO is quite tricky and is riddled with many assumptions/forecasts.
Read 14 tweets

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