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28 Apr, 5 tweets, 3 min read
The latest ONS antibody survey is out. The last one (2 weeks ago) showed a surprising pause in the increase in the proportion with antibodies, but this has now resumed.

By country the movement is
E: Up from 55% to 68%
W: 49% to 61%
NI: 55% to 63%
S: 46% to 58%

1/5
Looking at England, by age we can see the 2nd dose effect kicking in at older ages, which had started to fall away. eg Over 80s is back up from 78% to 87%.

We also have modelled estimates for those vaccinated - these appear slightly higher than other data, eg NHS.
2/5
By region London is put at around 10% behind the rest in terms of having had the first dose, but is "in the pack" in terms of antibody prevalence - maybe due to higher levels of antibodies acquired through infection.

3/5
It's a little curious that the dip the ONS has picked up, which is presumably prior to second dosing, has not been picked up in PHE surveillance, as shown here from the latest report.

4/5
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The report is here. Sample sizes are much lower than the infection survey (eg 17k in England in the latest 2 weeks), but with much higher proportions returning positive results, they are still very reliable.

5/5
 ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts Profile picture
28 Apr
The PHE study reported widely today shows that those who are vaccinated who still get infected are 40% to 50% less likely to pass it on to a household contact than those unvaccinated.

1/7
 khub.net/documents/1359…
This is an important finding, as household setting transmission is more difficult to suppress through the interventions we are all familiar with, particularly in large multi-generational households.

2/7
This benefit is on top of the lower risk in becoming infected, which is typically around 65% after a first dose (there isn't enough data on any further protection from a 2nd dose).

So the overall first dose effect in terms of protecting your family becomes around 85%.
3/7
Read 7 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
14 Apr
The latest antibody survey from @ONS has been published, and show that levels have flattened off in England and are falling in the oldest age groups. Similar patterns are seen in W and S, though not in NI.

The overall % in England is 54.9%, compared with 54.7% two weeks ago.
1/5
In England the first sign of a fall in older ages was seen two weeks ago, but is now clearer and extends down to all groups over 65. Younger age groups are continuing to rise.

The fall over the 2 weeks for 80+ is from 86% to 78%, and is 8-9% in the three upper groups.

2/5
Visually you can see it here at the latest point in time, or follow the link to have the interactive version. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
3/5
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
13 Apr
A 40m Tue vaccine update:

261k total doses today, around 150% higher than the last day of the Easter BH data.

With all the BH now out of the 7D total, it's just tipped back over 3m, consistent with govt messaging for April supply.

2nd doses and vaxing the 40s next.

1/4
Just on 200k 2nd doses today, so another new high for the 7D total of 2.4m. Over the last week the split has been around 80/20 in favour of second doses.

We remain 3 days ahead of my 11 week target line, so are still keeping to the required pace.

2/4
With bookings opened for the 45-49 cohort, how long will these take to jab? There are around 4.4m in total (UK), but we know around 27% of the 16-49 group have already been jabbed (Eng). That's likely to take the number down to no more than 3m, maybe even less.

3/4
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
8 Apr
The latest @imperialcollege #REACT study shows a sharp fall since the last report, with infection levels falling by 60% from 0.49% to 0.20% (0.17%, 0.23%).

It suggests that within the round the decline has levelled, and puts R at 1.0 for the period.
spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/1004…

1/9
Round 10 (11/3 to 30/3) saw 227 positive tests out of 141k swabs, and the central estimate is now at its lowest since early September. It's slightly below the latest ONS figure for England too, of 0.27% (for the week to 27th March).

2/9
The movement between Rd 9 and 10 suggests an R of 0.84 , but samples collected within the round indicate that the fall has levelled off.

Notice though that there is a wide CI (0.81% to 1.21%), reflecting uncertainty as to whether there is still some fall or even a rise.
3/9
Read 9 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
7 Apr
Wed vaccine update:

For the first working day post Easter, a disappointing 266k total doses, only just over half last week's figure, so the 7 day total drops further to just 2.35m, with 2nd doses making up 2/3rds of that figure.

2nd doses and Wales next.

1/4
With only 180k second doses, down a third on last week, the 7D total continues to fall back, now 1.55m.

The two red lines move ever closer, with only 2 days leeway now over the 11 week benchmark with first dose progress.

A national comparison is of interest though...

2/4
HT to @RhonddaBryant for prompting this, but if we compare current 2nd dose totals to the equivalent nearest 1st dose day we see that:-
E is slowest, only on 20th Jan (76 days)
S/NI are both on 26th Jan (70 days)
W is well ahead on 2nd Feb (63 days).

More on Wales next.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
6 Apr
Tue vaccine update: (Spoiler alert - still v slow)

Only 105k total doses today, down 3/4 from last week, and similar falls to those reported yesterday. Hopefully this is the last day of the Easter effect, although we will probably continue to see low 1st dose numbers.

1/4
It's a similar story for 2nd doses, at just 65k, although the fall is not so marked. But there's more urgency here to recover lost ground, to keep a comfortable margin ahead of the 12 week guide (and my prudent 11W benchmark too.)

Next, what's the prospect from now on?

2/4
The SPI-M papers published yesterday show clearly that the govt has reduced its expectation of the roll-out recently, asking the modellers to slow it from 3.2m to 2.7m for England until the end of July. Beyond that there is an even steeper fall, halved from 3.9m to 2m.

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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