I’m always intrigued when British people who are (supposedly) self-declared friends of Ireland call for #Irexit.
- A short thread on what would immediately happen -
- A short thread on what would immediately happen -
2/
#Irexit would have all the problems of Brexit multiplied because of its smaller size, but that isn’t even the worst of it.
The worst thing would be everyone would assume Ireland would leave the EURO. Because how & why would you stay inside EURO but outside the EU?
& then..
#Irexit would have all the problems of Brexit multiplied because of its smaller size, but that isn’t even the worst of it.
The worst thing would be everyone would assume Ireland would leave the EURO. Because how & why would you stay inside EURO but outside the EU?
& then..
3/
So if everyone assumes Ireland would leave the EURO why would anyone keep any savings or cash in Irish banks?
To protect the EURO value of your savings you would simply transfer these to other EU state accounts before your money was converted into as yet unknown currency.
So if everyone assumes Ireland would leave the EURO why would anyone keep any savings or cash in Irish banks?
To protect the EURO value of your savings you would simply transfer these to other EU state accounts before your money was converted into as yet unknown currency.
4/
Now as every GCSE school kid knows banks always lend far more than the cash they have.
So as people extract money from 🇮🇪 banks there would come a point in days where 🇮🇪 banks would have cash problems. At that point every last person joins run-on-the-banks.
They collapse.
Now as every GCSE school kid knows banks always lend far more than the cash they have.
So as people extract money from 🇮🇪 banks there would come a point in days where 🇮🇪 banks would have cash problems. At that point every last person joins run-on-the-banks.
They collapse.
5/
In normal circumstances a govt prints money to help out. But 🇮🇪 cant print euros so would have to print it’s own new currency - the new Punt - in the middle of a banking & trade crisis.
Anyone sensible will thus insist on being paid in EUROs.
Result:
The new Punt collapses.
In normal circumstances a govt prints money to help out. But 🇮🇪 cant print euros so would have to print it’s own new currency - the new Punt - in the middle of a banking & trade crisis.
Anyone sensible will thus insist on being paid in EUROs.
Result:
The new Punt collapses.
6/
At this point in most other countries inequality spirals & some sort of social unrest breaks out (see Latin America) as people with access to the dominant currency become far more powerful than those who are paid in the weaker currency.
Democratic systems usually break down.
At this point in most other countries inequality spirals & some sort of social unrest breaks out (see Latin America) as people with access to the dominant currency become far more powerful than those who are paid in the weaker currency.
Democratic systems usually break down.
7/
In this context Ireland would have to commence the long wearing process of starting talks with the EU - and supposedly 100+ other countries on a trade deal(s).
The UK a large top 10 GDP country - had tremendous problems here.
How would 🇮🇪 in a banking collapse deal with it?
In this context Ireland would have to commence the long wearing process of starting talks with the EU - and supposedly 100+ other countries on a trade deal(s).
The UK a large top 10 GDP country - had tremendous problems here.
How would 🇮🇪 in a banking collapse deal with it?
8/
Now assuming 🇮🇪 still had a choice it could still leave the EU it would share a population with travel/citizen/work rights with the UK...
...now wonder where this going?
Now assuming 🇮🇪 still had a choice it could still leave the EU it would share a population with travel/citizen/work rights with the UK...
...now wonder where this going?
9/
With its citizens sharing rights with UK, a collapsed banking system, collapsed currency & no trade agreements with anyone - it could of course in its weakened state use the £ & ease unemployment problems with UK. No doubt UK would be happy to order an accelerated trade deal.
With its citizens sharing rights with UK, a collapsed banking system, collapsed currency & no trade agreements with anyone - it could of course in its weakened state use the £ & ease unemployment problems with UK. No doubt UK would be happy to order an accelerated trade deal.
10/
Effectively 🇮🇪 would have swapped a rich powerful position inside the EU for a weakened subservient position to the 🇬🇧.
...And that Ladies & Gentlemen is why “a certain type of Brit” favours #Irexit.
/ends
Effectively 🇮🇪 would have swapped a rich powerful position inside the EU for a weakened subservient position to the 🇬🇧.
...And that Ladies & Gentlemen is why “a certain type of Brit” favours #Irexit.
/ends
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