There is an interesting investigative journalism project to be done on the revolving door between climate science & policy and private sector climate services
Just as one example, John Kerry's predecessor as "climate envoy" co-founded a consulting firm that feeds off of RCP8.5
Absolutely fascinating how climate scenarios (RCPs, SSPs & their derivatives) are enabling entirely new markets for consulting based on financial risk assessments of fictional futures
It is also amazing how much money is being paid to explore these outdated, fictional futures
Observing the monetization of climate scenarios I am reminded of this passage from Rayner and Sarewitz 2021 @TheBTI Journal on how the Chesapeake Bay Program confused models and reality thebreakthrough.org/journal/no-13-…
The primary investor in Jupiter Intelligence (climate services based on RCP8.5) is Energize Ventures, a venture capital firm seeking to capitalize on the ongoing energy transformation
Good for them
But you can surely see how a consultancy promoting RCP8.5 is complementary
The "anchor partner" of Energize Ventures is Invenergy, a privately held energy company that operates >25 GW of wind, solar and natural gas facilities
Of course there is a cozy eco-system:
former gov't officials
scientists w/ specialized knowledge
venture capital
energy companies
current federal policy making
Has always been so
But it is interesting how these dynamics promote implausible scenarios & keep bad science going
There has been a lot of attention paid to the pathological dynamics of the energy-govt-science ecosystem related to fossil fuel interests, I have never seen similar critiques of the role played by non-fossil fuel interests
Low-hanging fruit for anyone wanting to look
/END
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Happy Monday
I'm going to let you in on a secret
It is out in the open but I doubt you've heard about it
Th most recent CMIP6 modeling studies of tropical cyclones/hurricanes project no detectable changes in storm metrics most associated with damage ... under RCP8.5 ... 1/n
Kreusseler et al GRL look at "integrated kinetic energy" (IKE) as a metric of potential damage and in model projections find "no significant changes in lifetime maximum IKE between present climate conditions and a projected climate scenario" agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
Very important
Kreussler et al support Klotzbach et al 2020:
"minimum in MSLP seems to be a better predictor of IKE in HR than the max wind speed, which tends to support the use of central pressure deficit as a better proxy than max surface winds to estimate TC damage"
Here is the New York Times on the Swiss Re RCP8.5x10 analysis
“Rising temperatures are likely to reduce global wealth significantly by 2050, as crop yields fall, disease spreads and rising seas consume coastal cities...”
I’ll never forget the 1st time I contacted police on a blog harasser — he threatened gunshots in heads of my children, only to find out he was a college professor & is still harassing me today⤵️
Online harassment takes other forms also:
Then there is/was a Twitter “blocklist” that includes me and my followers (taken at some point in time promoted & shared by a lead of the US Natl Climate Assessment & a leading journalist — obviously intended to isolate and marginalize
I’ve seen that online harassment can become real world harassment with real world consequences
Here is what the reductions would have to look like on an annual basis to meet the Biden 50% (from 2005) CO2 reduction target by 2030
To put those reductions into context, here are US increases/reductions 1991-2020
The only annual reductions > ~3% occurred during global financial crisis and COVID-19, but some other years have been close, sustained annual reductions have not yet occurred
This letter from members of US Congress to Ecohealtth Alliance contains some very interesting information related to a lab leak hypothesis ... it is fair to say that authoritative investigations of a lab leak are now proceeding on multiple fronts ⤵️ republicans-energycommerce.house.gov/wp-content/upl…
Some highlights and questions:
Does anyone actually have this review?