😬
When RCP8.5 isn’t bad enough
New Swiss Re climate report
“We use multiplicative factors of 5 and 10 to simulate the increasing severity of outcomes from nonlinearities”
That’s right
Take sketchy model results & then multiply by 5x and 10x to account for “unknown unknowns”
When RCP8.5 isn’t bad enough
New Swiss Re climate report
“We use multiplicative factors of 5 and 10 to simulate the increasing severity of outcomes from nonlinearities”
That’s right
Take sketchy model results & then multiply by 5x and 10x to account for “unknown unknowns”
https://twitter.com/AndrewSiffert/status/1385177296126955520
The headline result — 2050 global GDP reduces 18% — is the result of taking economic outcomes of RCP8.5 in a simple econometric model & then ...
[never seen this methodological step before]
... multiplying those results by 10 to account for unknown unknowns
HT @AndrewSiffert
[never seen this methodological step before]
... multiplying those results by 10 to account for unknown unknowns
HT @AndrewSiffert
Here is the New York Times on the Swiss Re RCP8.5x10 analysis
“Rising temperatures are likely to reduce global wealth significantly by 2050, as crop yields fall, disease spreads and rising seas consume coastal cities...”
I cannot overstate how bonkers this is
“Rising temperatures are likely to reduce global wealth significantly by 2050, as crop yields fall, disease spreads and rising seas consume coastal cities...”
I cannot overstate how bonkers this is
I do love me a good RCP8.5 analysis
But I gotta draw the line at RCP8.5x10
Happy Days😎
But I gotta draw the line at RCP8.5x10
Happy Days😎
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