😬
When RCP8.5 isn’t bad enough
New Swiss Re climate report

“We use multiplicative factors of 5 and 10 to simulate the increasing severity of outcomes from nonlinearities”

That’s right
Take sketchy model results & then multiply by 5x and 10x to account for “unknown unknowns”
The headline result — 2050 global GDP reduces 18% — is the result of taking economic outcomes of RCP8.5 in a simple econometric model & then ...

[never seen this methodological step before]

... multiplying those results by 10 to account for unknown unknowns

HT @AndrewSiffert
Here is the New York Times on the Swiss Re RCP8.5x10 analysis

“Rising temperatures are likely to reduce global wealth significantly by 2050, as crop yields fall, disease spreads and rising seas consume coastal cities...”

I cannot overstate how bonkers this is
I do love me a good RCP8.5 analysis
But I gotta draw the line at RCP8.5x10

Happy Days😎

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

21 Apr
I’ll never forget the 1st time I contacted police on a blog harasser — he threatened gunshots in heads of my children, only to find out he was a college professor & is still harassing me today⤵️

➡️From snark to dark: how harassment took over the internet ft.com/content/b1da22…
Online harassment takes other forms also:
Then there is/was a Twitter “blocklist” that includes me and my followers (taken at some point in time promoted & shared by a lead of the US Natl Climate Assessment & a leading journalist — obviously intended to isolate and marginalize
I’ve seen that online harassment can become real world harassment with real world consequences

issues.org/the-science-po…
Read 5 tweets
20 Apr
For CO2 from energy a 50% reduction from 2005 level equates to a 34% reduction from 2020

➡️Biden plans to cut emissions at least in half by 2030 washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…
Here is what the reductions would have to look like on an annual basis to meet the Biden 50% (from 2005) CO2 reduction target by 2030
To put those reductions into context, here are US increases/reductions 1991-2020

The only annual reductions > ~3% occurred during global financial crisis and COVID-19, but some other years have been close, sustained annual reductions have not yet occurred
Read 6 tweets
17 Apr
This letter from members of US Congress to Ecohealtth Alliance contains some very interesting information related to a lab leak hypothesis ... it is fair to say that authoritative investigations of a lab leak are now proceeding on multiple fronts ⤵️
republicans-energycommerce.house.gov/wp-content/upl…
Some highlights and questions:
Does anyone actually have this review?
Here is that framework: phe.gov/s3/dualuse/Pag…
Read 8 tweets
16 Apr
A massive haul of new RCP8.5 studies today
And the beat goes on ... Image
What do such studies mean for the real world? Image
RCP8.5 as BAU and RCP4.5 as mitigation (both improper) continues to be common, example Image
Read 7 tweets
12 Apr
Motivated by @Scienceofsport 🧵

Can we agree that female physiology gives an advantage over males in women's gymnastics?

And if so can we further agree that gymnastics rules for trans athletes should thus be very different than, say, boxing?

See: doi.org/10.1080/147631…
Sports w/ female athleticism superior or equivalent to male athleticism

YES
gymnastics (F)
rhythmic gymnastics
synchronized swimming
diving
equestrian
sailing
racing (car, motorbike, horse)

MAYBE
ice skating/dancing
skiing
luge
bobsled
distance swimming
endurance running

More?
Now bear with me... imagine a 19th/20th century alternative history with the western world female dominated & our female leaders created a modern Olympics centered on exalting female athleticism - like in gymnastics and synchronized swimming (as above), with men cheering along...
Read 7 tweets
12 Apr
Lots of good comments on our newly revised preprint, keep’em coming 🙏⤵️
If we view the future through the lens of plausible IPCC scenarios (AR5 & SSP consistent with 2005-2020 reality & 2020-2040 near-term projections), the below shows fossil fuel CO2 emissions without application of an negative emissions technologies Image
One comment we have received on this analysis is that the envelope of emissions in 2100 from plausible scenarios may not actually reflect all plausible outcomes

We agree!

That is an argument (which we make) for updating IPCC scenarios & not continuing to use outdated scenarios
Read 4 tweets

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