Thread by @RogerPielkeJr

For CO2 from energy a 50% reduction from 2005 level equates to a 34% reduction from 2020

➡️Biden plans to cut emissions at least in half by 2030 washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…

Here is what the reductions would have to look like on an annual basis to meet the Biden 50% (from 2005) CO2 reduction target by 2030

To put those reductions into context, here are US increases/reductions 1991-2020

The only annual reductions > ~3% occurred during global financial crisis and COVID-19, but some other years have been close, sustained annual reductions have not yet occurred

The simple math is that 3-5% of the total number of:

➡️coal power plants
➡️gas power plants
➡️automobiles/trucks/planes/ships
➡️industry (steel, concrete, petrochemicals, etc)

Needs to be retired/replaced every year

Tracking this is a bit complex but it is overall easily done

The good news for climate is Pres Biden's plan occurs on time scales of accountability

We'll know chances for success/failure very soon, in a year or two

These are not symbolic commitments & that's good

Don't take my word for it, do the math yourself:
eia.gov/totalenergy/da…

And don't let accounting games with land use or offsets substitute for actual reductions in CO2 from energy

Under every (!) IPCC scenario to 2100, radiative forcing of the climate is due ~80%+/- due to CO2 emissions from fossil fuels

That's the overwhelming issue, focus there