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1/n

I am working on a paper on why interest rates and yields are as low as they are. I will share some preliminary results here.

I am working on a paper on why interest rates and yields are as low as they are. I will share some preliminary results here.

2/n

What I will share are some of the output from a simple model for US 10-year Treasury bond yields.

What I will share are some of the output from a simple model for US 10-year Treasury bond yields.

3/n

It is key to me that the model not only is statistically significantly, but is also economically significant. We need to understand economic developments within economic theory.

It is key to me that the model not only is statistically significantly, but is also economically significant. We need to understand economic developments within economic theory.

I have been reading up on 'Central Bank Digital Currencies' (CBDC) - it seems to me that central banks really are mostly are driven by fear our 'private' crypto currencies and really have little idea about why they need CBDCs....

...I on the other hand think CBDCs could improve the functioning of monetary policy and could be useful in the conduct of monetary policy - particular with the natural interest rate close to the Zero Lower Bound.

In my view it would be better to talk about Central Bank Digital CASH (rather than Currency) indicating that it would be a digital version of non-interest rate bearing cash.

1/n Siden marts har jeg brugt rigtig meget tid med Covid-19 data. I forhold til at forklare forskelle mellem forskellige lande er min konklusion at hverken adfærd eller politik betyder betyder nær så meget som det gøres til. Der er ikke ansvarlig og uansvarlige befolkninger.

2/n "Vi" styrer eller kontrollerer ikke virussen. Tidsmæssigt kan forskellige faktorer "forskubbe", hvor mange der bliver smittet og dør, men langt mere vigtigt er det, som jeg har kaldt "health fundamentals"

3/n de vigtigste health fundamentals er følgende:

1) Antallet af ældre (især mænd) som andel af befolkningen

2) Andelen af befolkningen, der er svært overvægtige

3) Andelen af befolkningen med mørk hud på den nordlige halvkugle

4) Sæson og klima (og dermed også verdensdele)

1) Antallet af ældre (især mænd) som andel af befolkningen

2) Andelen af befolkningen, der er svært overvægtige

3) Andelen af befolkningen med mørk hud på den nordlige halvkugle

4) Sæson og klima (og dermed også verdensdele)

2/n

"I ugevis har medier og forskere og over hele verden med stigende utålmodighed afventet offentliggørelsen af et stort dansk studie om effekten – eller manglen på samme – af at gå med mundbind i det offentlige rum her under coronapandemien."

"I ugevis har medier og forskere og over hele verden med stigende utålmodighed afventet offentliggørelsen af et stort dansk studie om effekten – eller manglen på samme – af at gå med mundbind i det offentlige rum her under coronapandemien."

3/n

"Nu kan en af de forskere, der har været involveret i studiet, oplyse, at det færdige forskningsresultat er blevet afvist af mindst tre af verdens absolut førende medicinske tidsskrifter."

"Nu kan en af de forskere, der har været involveret i studiet, oplyse, at det færdige forskningsresultat er blevet afvist af mindst tre af verdens absolut førende medicinske tidsskrifter."

1/n Epidemiological vs economic forecasting

If we look at the forecasts we got from epidemiologists initially in this pandemic it has turned out that they have massively wrong. While tragic the number of people who has died in this pandemic has been much lower than forecasted

If we look at the forecasts we got from epidemiologists initially in this pandemic it has turned out that they have massively wrong. While tragic the number of people who has died in this pandemic has been much lower than forecasted

2/n The reason given by epidemiologists then is that that is because of interventions - lockdowns. But then you made the wrong kind of forecast - a forecast you forgot to forecast what would happen IF lockdowns were implemented.

3/n And how do you explain the numbers in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan? No lockdown and massively death told.

And Sweden with no lockdown, but with a death told/capita similar to other Western European countries (while larger than in the other Nordic countries).

And Sweden with no lockdown, but with a death told/capita similar to other Western European countries (while larger than in the other Nordic countries).

1/n I have a simple model of US stock market valuation. I like to look at the Wilshire 5000 to get a broad stock market measure. I have just updated the model. Here are the results...