The 1st 2 weeks of school testing did find MORE FALSE POSITIVES than TRUE POSITIVES - data are finally public.
Proportion false were 62% and 55% in these 2 weeks. Of 2304 positive tests, 1353 were likely false, with 1 positive per 6900 tests done.
Remember that the law made kids, teachers, families and bubbles had to isolate for 10 days even when the PCR came back negative, despite the @RoyalStatSoc spending days trying to explain the issues to @DHSCgovuk.
Never ever say tests don't do harm.
To be clear as some still can't see the problem. 2 weeks testing in every school only found 954 true cases. To find each one used 6884 tests (cost £144,564) and 1.4 false negatives were put into unnecessary isolation with bubble and family- 500 person days if a bubble affected 36
Thats £138M to find less than 1000 cases, and probably around 675,000 person days of avoidable isolation. Plus all the inconvenience schools were put through.
I seriously can't fathom how anybody can argue that this is a sensible way to run a testing programme.
Of course "false negative" in that tweet should be "false positive".
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Well here is some real data from 27 health care workers who picked up symptomatic Covid-19 infections whilst being tested twice weekly using RT-PCR. The paper develops models to look at impact of testing frequency, but also hypotheses on LFT performance bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
There is excellent presentation of the original data in the paper, as well as results from the models. Kudos to the authors.
Plots of Ct values from PCR are provided, which show that RT-PCR with Ct<37 had a peak sensitivity for detecting infection of 77% 4 days after infection.
No LFTs were used in the study, but the paper considered test results with Ct<28 and Ct<25 as illustrations of how LFTs might perform. At Ct<28 the red spots are +ve LFT results, the black are -ve LFT results, peak sensitivity is 64% at 4.3 days post infection.
Ben Dyson, an executive director of strategy at the health department and one of Matt Hancock’s advisers, stressed the “fairly urgent need for decisions” on “the point at which we stop offering asymptomatic testing”.
“As of today, someone who gets a positive LFD result in (say) London has at best a 25% chance of it being a true positive, but if it is a self-reported test potentially as low as 10% (on an optimistic assumption about specificity) or as low as 2% (on a more pessimistic assumption
Take note - @dhscgov rapid tests are being sent out (certainly in schools) with two different (and conflicting) information sheets, one in the box and one given out separately.
(the crumpled one with the picture is in the box, the glossy one is handed out separately).
1/10
The clue to which one is most up to date is on the back page (the one in the box is the out of date version).
2/10
The important difference in on page 2, which has far more info in the box (1st) version than the version given out about who should use the test and what they should do.
@drdavideyre isn't the 89.5% figure based on the samples in symptomatic index cases taken at the test-and-trace centre? So this shows how good the test works in those who attend test-and-trace with symptoms? Pretty good idea to use them there.
Using this test (or better ones) backed with PCR in test-and-trace centres could revolutionize contact tracing- if people get their results and meet with an infection control team before they leave the centre we will be moving everything forward 3 days. Add in financial help too.
But how well they work in mass testing or contacts will depend on the distribution of viral loads in these groups - which I cannot see that you have any data on in this paper. The Cochrane review showed sensitivity much lower in those without symptoms.
Important paper in @bmj_latest from global leaders in test evaluation. Hope will improve quality of studies. 1/n
Guidance for the design and reporting of studies evaluating the clinical performance of tests for present or past SARS-CoV-2 infection bmj.com/content/372/bm…
From reading @DHSCgovuk@PHE_uk study reports and many others from organisations around the world, we are aware that the level of understanding about clinical test evaluation studies is often less than ideal.
This paper lays out clear steps to help improve.
3/n