Biden Has Elevated the Job of Science Adviser.
Is That What Science Needs?

Excellent stage setter for Lander hearing today by @WilliamJBroad

nytimes.com/2021/04/29/sci…
You can watch the Lander OTSP confirmation hearing here in about 1 hour: commerce.senate.gov/2021/4/nominat…
Here are five policy questions that I recommended be put to Lander at the hearing:
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/five-questio…
If you'd like a bit of a deeper dive on the position of science advisor to the US president, I recommend this:

Pielke, R., & Klein, R. 2009. The rise and fall of the science advisor to the president of the United States. Minerva, 47:7-29.
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat…
Here is Lander's opening statement

In it he characterizes his portfolio at OSTP in terms of 4 of 5 of Biden's "big questions" -- left out is what the country can do for S&T
commerce.senate.gov/services/files… Image
That members of Congress of both parties (not just in this hearing) routinely stumble over saying "Office of Science and Technology Policy" tells us something about how often they use the phrase
Senators Duckworth (D), Wicker (R), Warren (D), Markey (D) w/ opening statements

Interesting dynamics

TD raises some concerns
RW expresses no concerns
EW addresses concerns
EM personalizes him

Nomination looks to sail through on a bipartisan basis
OSTP still a minor player
Hickenlooper (D) with a question about scientific integrity of the US National Climate Assessment

Lander answers with importance of dissent

Background: rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/fixing-the-u…
Lander offers a surprising goal

Within 100 days of a declared pandemic we should have enough does of a tested and approved vaccine in sufficient quantities for everyone

"This should be our last pandemic"
Lander not well prepped for a question on cybersecurity
Sen Blumenthal asks Lander about Walter Isaacson's new book, The Code Breaker

Lander comes in for some criticism in the book, but Isaacson remains a fan

blogs.sciencemag.org/editors-blog/2… Image
Sen Blunt with an ARPA-H question, how does it differ from NIH?

Lander replies (again) by invoking the valley-of-death between basic research and commercial development

But NIH doesn't (in principle) do "basic research"
Lander comes across as brilliant and passionate in his area of expertise

There is a noticeable drop off in his knowledge of other areas of S&T policy
Sen Luján asks what Lander can do to ensure that science is not just in the room (member of cabinet) but considered in decisions

Lander filibusters

It appears that Lander staying away from concrete policy discussions is a strategy, focusing on generalities instead
More generalities

Sen Klobuchar asks Lander about climate change
"focus on innovation" to make energy generating technologies more efficient to close cost gaps

cybersecurity
"don't have enough people trained in it"
"make less hackable"

broadband
"such an important issue"
Democrats having a hard time finding someone to chair the Lander confirmation hearing is an apt metaphor for how OSTP is viewed in the federal policy ecosystem

Nice to have but not really an important player
Sen Rosen asks about science integrity

A great chance to tout Biden agenda on this

But Lander does not mention either the recent Biden memo or Congressional science integrity legislation

Seems clear that responding with happy generalities is the strategy here

And it'll work
Sen Sullivan fishes for praise of Trump on vaccines

Lander cleverly steers conversation to cold Alaskan winters and research centers

Very smooth
Senator Lunnis asks about rare earth minerals

Lander's tell that he doesn't know much about the topic is "such an important issue"

Says that 100% of Gallium is imported from China
According to USGS 2021 this is incorrect
pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mc… Image
Lander is prepared with a written statement expressing his regret for his treatment of colleagues over CRISPR
Senator Lee asks about research ethics regulations
Lander is on record on some of Lee's questions, such as heritable genome editing:

nature.com/articles/d4158…
Senator Lee asks instead of increasing R&D spending by $100B, why not $250B? Why not $1T?

University lobbyists' ears just perked up 😉
Short, uneventful, substance-free hearing

I predict Lander will sail thru, unanimously in committee and overwhelmingly in the Senate

What Biden's OSTP will do remains a mystery, but I'd venture history provides a good guide

That's all folks!
/END

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

30 Apr
A great paper by @JessicaWeinkle
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

"the extent to which the insurance industry directs, funds & validates the production & use of science for estimating risk is itself a full blown political enterprise that functions to prioritize industry interests" Image
Weinkle documents the co-optation of scientists by the insurance industry to create regulatory-friendly research that appears to be "independent" Image
The use of the resulting research by industry goes unchallenged and in fact, legitimizes the work of the (no so) "independent" experts as authoritative because industry is using it ... so a mutually reinforcing legitimization circle Image
Read 5 tweets
28 Apr
There is an interesting investigative journalism project to be done on the revolving door between climate science & policy and private sector climate services

Just as one example, John Kerry's predecessor as "climate envoy" co-founded a consulting firm that feeds off of RCP8.5
Absolutely fascinating how climate scenarios (RCPs, SSPs & their derivatives) are enabling entirely new markets for consulting based on financial risk assessments of fictional futures

It is also amazing how much money is being paid to explore these outdated, fictional futures
Observing the monetization of climate scenarios I am reminded of this passage from Rayner and Sarewitz 2021 @TheBTI Journal on how the Chesapeake Bay Program confused models and reality
thebreakthrough.org/journal/no-13-…
Read 7 tweets
26 Apr
🧵
Happy Monday
I'm going to let you in on a secret
It is out in the open but I doubt you've heard about it

Th most recent CMIP6 modeling studies of tropical cyclones/hurricanes project no detectable changes in storm metrics most associated with damage ... under RCP8.5 ... 1/n
Kreusseler et al GRL look at "integrated kinetic energy" (IKE) as a metric of potential damage and in model projections find "no significant changes in lifetime maximum IKE between present climate conditions and a projected climate scenario"
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
Very important
Kreussler et al support Klotzbach et al 2020:
"minimum in MSLP seems to be a better predictor of IKE in HR than the max wind speed, which tends to support the use of central pressure deficit as a better proxy than max surface winds to estimate TC damage"
Read 10 tweets
23 Apr
🧵
For the 6th time in the past 6 years US tornado counts through 22 April are below average (2005-2020)

I was curious ... does a quiet start suggest a quiet year?

Data: @NOAA @NWSSPC Image
The answer is -- yes -- a quiet start does to some degree suggest a quiet year

Here is the relationship of tornadoes through April 22nd and the year's total

Counts through April 22nd average ~28% of the annual total & regression r^2 is ~0.39

Data: @NOAA @NWSSPC Image
Evidence suggests decreasing tornado incidence

Our work shows a long-term decline in normalized tornado losses (in fact the decline is so pronounced it is evidence in non-normalized data as well)

Data updated from: doi.org/10.1080/174778… Image
Read 6 tweets
22 Apr
😬
When RCP8.5 isn’t bad enough
New Swiss Re climate report

“We use multiplicative factors of 5 and 10 to simulate the increasing severity of outcomes from nonlinearities”

That’s right
Take sketchy model results & then multiply by 5x and 10x to account for “unknown unknowns”
The headline result — 2050 global GDP reduces 18% — is the result of taking economic outcomes of RCP8.5 in a simple econometric model & then ...

[never seen this methodological step before]

... multiplying those results by 10 to account for unknown unknowns

HT @AndrewSiffert
Here is the New York Times on the Swiss Re RCP8.5x10 analysis

“Rising temperatures are likely to reduce global wealth significantly by 2050, as crop yields fall, disease spreads and rising seas consume coastal cities...”

I cannot overstate how bonkers this is
Read 4 tweets
21 Apr
I’ll never forget the 1st time I contacted police on a blog harasser — he threatened gunshots in heads of my children, only to find out he was a college professor & is still harassing me today⤵️

➡️From snark to dark: how harassment took over the internet ft.com/content/b1da22…
Online harassment takes other forms also:
Then there is/was a Twitter “blocklist” that includes me and my followers (taken at some point in time promoted & shared by a lead of the US Natl Climate Assessment & a leading journalist — obviously intended to isolate and marginalize
I’ve seen that online harassment can become real world harassment with real world consequences

issues.org/the-science-po…
Read 5 tweets

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