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Bernard L. Fraga

29 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read

@uscensusbureau

Now available: 2020 turnout estimates from the @uscensusbureau's Current Population Survey. Here is a chart of self-reported turnout rates from 1948-2020 by race/ethnicity. CPS reports big⬆️in Asian turnout and above avg increase for Latinxs. (1/3)

@b_schaffner

BUT, as I show in a new paper with @b_schaffner and Steve Ansolabehere, the CPS systematically overestimates minority voter turnout despite getting white turnout mostly right. The CPS thus understates the amount of racial inequality in who votes. (2/3) dropbox.com/s/qwirgejfcacs…

@Catalist_US

Current solutions for correcting or re-weighting the CPS fall short, but soon we'll have voter file based estimates of 2020 turnout by race/ethnicity from @Catalist_US. (3/3)

https://twitter.com/Catalist_US/status/1387806244275204106?s=20

For more on trends in Black, Latinx, and Asian American voter turnout over time, check out my book The Turnout Gap bit.ly/TurnoutGap

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More from @blfraga

Bernard L. Fraga

@blfraga

17 Jan

#GASenateRunoff (most) Election Day vote history is here! Final-ish turnout in runoff, as percent of general turnout:

Total: 89.6%
White: 89.5%
Black: 91.8%
Latino: 78.1%
Asian: 84.1%

🚨At least 226,462 new voters in runoff, 50%+ non-white. 91k+ Black, 10k+ Latino, 9k+ Asian.🚨

@elium2

All of these figures are records for a runoff: turnout pct, turnout #, (low) drop-off, minority share and # of voters + new voters.

h/t to @elium2 for his tweets noting the updated runoff vote history data. @fairfightaction @BlackVotersMtr @staceyabrams @GAConGANas @ConMijente

@staceyabrams

Was close here: right now Black turnout is at 1.375 million, 92% of general. Note that this includes modeled race for other/unknown race voters. Without doing this you will underestimate Black turnout, as @staceyabrams noted.

https://twitter.com/blfraga/status/1346853833595613184

Read 5 tweets

Bernard L. Fraga

@blfraga

5 Jan

Merging general results, the voter file, and vote history data, it's clear drop-off among white Republicans drives the racial differences in #GASenateRunoff turnout I've identified throughout early voting. (1/x) #gapol

First, everyone needs to exit the coastal mindset re: white voters. In GA, there are only 44 precincts where whites are more than 80% of the voters and Perdue got less than 40% of the vote, for a grand total of about 85,000 white voters concentrated in DeKalb and Fulton. (2/x)

OTOH, 1.4 million white voters live in the 850 precincts that are >80% white and voted more than 60% for Perdue. These are the precincts I'll be watching tonight. (3/x)

Read 5 tweets

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