1) I’ve never understood why people love labeling themselves as contrarian.
What’s with such pride?
Contrarians are often in error but never in doubt.
What’s with such pride?
Contrarians are often in error but never in doubt.
2) In The Art of Contrary Thinking, written in 1954, Humphrey Neill said being contrarian is not not about simply taking the opposite view of the crowd.
3) Timing is important.
Contrary opinions are frequently wrong primarily because the crowd is right most of the time.
Contrary opinions are frequently wrong primarily because the crowd is right most of the time.
4) Instead of treating crowd behavior as irrational, we should embrace it.
5) If an idea attracts a few people, it is likely to spread and soon attract everybody.
The crowd is susceptible to emotional contagion.
The crowd is susceptible to emotional contagion.
6) The ups and downs of the market are not predictable as to extent or duration.
Contrarianism is a method for anticipating multiple scenarios and awaiting developments prior to settling upon the more probable path.
Contrarianism is a method for anticipating multiple scenarios and awaiting developments prior to settling upon the more probable path.
7) “It is a thinking tool not a crystal ball,” Neill insisted, an antidote to unreliable and unchecked predictions.
8) The present is all we know. The future must be checked as the months roll by.
9) Doing away with preconceived opinions is a principle of contrary thinking.
A dogmatic view is merely a guess expressed as if it were knowledge.
A dogmatic view is merely a guess expressed as if it were knowledge.
10) More investment mistakes arise from a dogmatic mindset than from uncertainty and confusion.
11) Possessed of an opinion, we are far less likely to be receptive to alternate viewpoints.
Contrarians are often in error but never in doubt.
Contrarians are often in error but never in doubt.
12) A probing mind is a contrary mind.
If we are dogmatic, we cannot ruminate contrarily.
If we are dogmatic, we cannot ruminate contrarily.
13) Contrarian opinons, as Neil puts it, are “thoughts before leaping” to prevent “jumps before concluding.”
14) Thinking contrarily is not an easy habit to form in the face of our human traits: hope, greed and pride-of-opinion.
15) After we initiate a position or express a public stance, it is hard to remain objective.
Our mind is naturally “hoping” to be right. Who wants to feel the shame of being wrong?
Our mind is naturally “hoping” to be right. Who wants to feel the shame of being wrong?
16) We very much care what other people think. But we have to remind ourselves that this is only a game.
17) And that if we want to be right, well, we have to admit we’re wrong.
There is value in bewilderment.
There is value in bewilderment.
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