I had a great chat with @summerlinARK about how Tesla is using AI to solve for FSD and why Tesla’s data advantage can become competitive moat.
How Tesla is Using AI to Solve FSD w/ ARK Analyst Will Summerlin Part 1 (Ep. 329)
Autonomous driving is a tough nut to crack because there are so many edge cases and a company needs a tremendous amount of driving data under a wide range of condition to gather enough of those edge cases.
Those edge cases are very hard to acquire and are gold.
Having the best data means Tesla can have the best performing FSD system & that attracts more drivers who generate even more data which in turn improves the system even more.
Data advantages in the 2020s will likely determine which companies have the strongest competitive moats.
Key takeaway I got from @summerlinARK is Tesla’s data is really hard to acquire cause needs to be done at scale, thus their FSD approach is not easy to copy. As Tesla’s FSD system gets better & their data advantage grows even more, this can become a huge competitive advantage.
This interview is a must-watch for all TSLA investors as it really helps to clarify why competitors are going to have such a hard time copying Tesla’s FSD and why it’s possible Tesla’s lead could actually grow in the future.
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But AI-powered robot cars is just the beginning of what might become the biggest technological revolution in history - the proliferation of physical AI robots that change our world as we know it.
1/ Tesla’s surprise Q1 report (185k vehicles delivered) removes much uncertainty many investors had, namely poor Q1 earnings could lead to a depressed stock price that could last multiple quarters.
This is a big opportunity for sentiment to turn positive.
2/ Tesla smashed expectations despite Q1 being seasonally weakest quarter and no refreshed S/X deliveries
Q2 will only get better with Shanghai continuing to ramp Model Y production and Tesla able to deliver refreshed S/X.
3/ Q1’s blowout deliveries also means that Tesla might post record Q1 earnings and profits.
As Tesla increases deliveries EVERY quarter this year, revenue & profit increase every quarter especially because revenue & gross profit will increase much faster than operating expenses.
"Gen4 will be the iPhone of the family & compact sedan market. This one will take longer since it might not be released until 2022 & it will take time for costs (ie., battery) to come down and production to ramp. So, by 2035-2040 I can see Tesla taking 50% sales of this market."
Funny to look back at these posts and find that @emmetpeppers who went by TSLAOpt on TMC see Tesla's potential back then.
I interviewed Bruce Norris from @thenorrisgroup who I’ve been following for 15 years and is one of the best in understanding real estate trends and prices in California and Florida.
Here’s why Bruce doesn’t think a real estate crash is coming any time soon.
First, lenders have generally been much more conservative in lending compared to the type of lending that led to the 2008-2011 housing crash. This means less likelihood of default.
Second, interest rates are at historic lows and are attracting new buyers wanting to lock in a fixed housing expense for 30 years.
Technology is enabling winner-takes-most markets in an unprecedented manner.
Here’s a thread on how to take advantage of this as an investor.
Technology and the Internet has created network effects. Add a person to the network and the value of the entire network grows, meaning the network becomes more valuable to every person on the network.
Network effects tend to be bi-directional.
For each new seller on Ebay, value is added to buyers (meaning more selection, lower prices, etc).
And for each new buyer on Ebay, value is added to sellers (meaning larger buyer base, more demand and volume).
In ~5 years, Elon steps down as Tesla CEO, remains as Chief Product Officer
In ~10 years, leaves Tesla completely to focus on SpaceX and Neuralink. Starts selling his TSLA stock.
This is fairly obvious to me.
However if a holding company is formed, Elon will oversee Tesla, SpaceX (and dozens of other ventures tbd) until the day he dies or loses the cognitive function to run it. Could be another 40 years. Makes a big difference.
Personally, I think @elonmusk is the best investor of capital and innovator at scale in our generation, and that might be an understatement.
This is an opportunity to create a structure that would optimize his time and interests the most.