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Aaron Derfel

1 May, 9 tweets, 4 min read

1) Quebec on Friday reported five more cases of the feared P.1 variant, including a single case for the first time in the Capitale-Nationale region. In this thread, I will provide an update on the more transmissible variants circulating in the province.

2) The P.1 variant has been responsible for the massive third wave in Brazil that has caused tens of thousands of #COVID19 deaths. But to date, Quebec has reported 30 confirmed cases of P.1. That compares with 645 in Ontario, 944 in Alberta and 2,063 in British Columbia.

3) The predominant variant by far in Quebec is B.1.1.7. Quebec’s public health institute reported 364 more sequenced cases of B.1.1.7., which was first detected in the U.K. Montreal continues to post the highest number of B.1.1.7 cases in the province.

4) British researchers released a study Friday of #COVID19 among health workers finding one Pfizer dose was insufficient to protect them against B.1.1.7. Nineteen ER staff at St. Mary's Hospital in Montreal have likely contracted B.1.1.7 after one dose. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

5) This sentinel event at St. Mary’s Hospital, coupled with the U.K. study, have obvious implications for the vaccine rollout in Quebec. At present, just 1% of Quebec’s population has received both doses. (My apologies for a tweet yesterday that had the incorrect percentage.)

6) Meanwhile, Montreal’s rolling seven-day average inched up to 12.68 cases per 100,000 residents. One borough reporting lots of new cases is Saint-Laurent, with a #COVID19 positivity rate of 8.2% (the highest in the city), but down from 19.5% during the peak of the second wave.

7) Perhaps the best news is the steady decline in #COVID19 hospitalizations. Quebec reported a drop of 31 such hospitalizations to 592 Friday, the sharpest daily decrease since Feb. 15. However, see the chart below showing hospitalizations still rising in the 50-plus age group.

8) The number of #COVID19 outbreaks also fell across the province by 33 to 1,139. The biggest decreases were observed in the workplace and in schools. However, with schools set to reopen in Capitale-Nationale and Chaudière-Appalaches this Monday, #COVID19 cases might rebound.

9) But Health Minister Christian Dubé tweeted Friday that given the improving epidemiological situation, “everything is in place for a safe return” to school in those regions. Let’s all hope Dubé is right, with just 1% of Quebec’s population fully vaccinated. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

30 Apr

1) Even as Quebec has made laudable progress in reducing the number of #COVID19 hospitalizations while ramping up vaccinations, hot spots remain — a warning that the #pandemic will probably continue here for months to come. In this thread, I will examine some of those hot spots.

2) As of Wednesday, 35% of Quebec’s population had been partially inoculated and 3.69% had received the second dose. Federal guidelines recommend vaccine coverage of 75% with one dose and 20% with two doses to achieve collective immunity.

3) Among the potential #COVID19 hot spots are hospitals and eldercare homes. Emergency-room workers at St. Mary’s Hospital received their first doses of the Pfizer vaccine in January, and 18 still got infected in an outbreak. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

29 Apr

1) In my Twitter thread yesterday, I wrote about how Montreal has continued to defy the odds in the third wave. But that doesn’t mean the #pandemic is over in the city — far from it. In this thread, I will highlight some lingering problems.

2) First, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in the city inched up by four to 281 since last week. What’s more, the majority involve the more transmissible variants. Still, the head of the Montreal public health department cautioned that the clusters are small. See the chart below.

3) And although #COVID19 outbreaks decreased in the workplace in Montreal since a week ago, they increased in grocery stores. Clusters also went up in both health-care institutions and schools, likely fueled by the variants. Please take a look at the chart below.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

25 Apr

1) At least one in four Montrealers who's received a first vaccine dose has by now built up enough immunity to not only fend off a #COVID19 infection, but to limit the spread of the virus in the city. In this thread, I'll explore the subject of vaccine coverage in the metropolis.

2) As of April 10, two weeks ago, 25.94% of Montreal’s population had received one #COVID19 vaccine dose. That means that the more than 15,000 people who got vaccinated on that date are now considered to have built up enough immunity, along with those who were inoculated before.

3) Obviously, this segment of the population needs the second dose, the sooner the better. But for now at least, the mass vaccinations appear to have blunted the third wave in Montreal, along with the #pandemic restrictions.

Read 12 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

24 Apr

1) Quebec on Friday disclosed that #COVID19 hospitalizations dropped by 27 to 684. This represented the steepest decline in hospitalizations since Feb. 15., with most of the decrease taking place in Montreal. In this thread, I will examine this latest trend on hospitals.

2) First, though, I wanted to provide some added context by comparing Quebec’s numbers with those in Ontario. Our neighbor to the west reported 2,287 #COVID19 hospitalizations, down from 2,350 the day before. But the overall number of cases is sadly still rising in Ontario.

3) In Montreal, #COVID19 hospitalizations declined by 20 to 249. During the second wave’s peak on Jan. 12, Montreal reported 627 such hospitalizations. Obviously, the latest decrease eases pressure on the acute-care network, but the system is already fractured in many ways.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

23 Apr

1) Breaking: Quebec posts 60 more sequenced variant cases on Friday for a total of 3,574. More than half of the new sequenced cases are not the B.1.1.7 variant that was first detected in the U.K. late last year.

2) Seventeen of the new variant cases are B.1.351, which was first discovered in South Africa. Abitibi-Témiscamingue posted nine such cases for a total of 141. Montreal added seven cases to 22. This variant has been found in eight regions of Quebec to date.

3) Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean and Outaouais each reported for the first time a single case of P.1, the variant that has caused massive deaths and hospitalizations in Brazil. Montreal added six new such cases for a total of 14. This variant is now in seven regions of the province.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

23 Apr

1) If there was ever any doubt that the variants are truly driving the third wave in the #COVID19 #pandemic, consider this comparison between Quebec and Ontario. On Feb. 7, Quebec posted a total of 22 variant cases and Ontario 401.

2) By Thursday, the number of variant #COVID19 cases in Quebec climbed to 3,514. By comparison, in Ontario — which is sadly in the midst of a much worse third wave — variant cases have soared to 44,536 in a little over two months.

3) We still don’t know why Ontario was hit so much harder than Quebec with the variants. Is it because Ontario reports much more international air travel than Quebec? Is it because Ontario’s #pandemic restrictions were laxer than those in Quebec?

Read 10 tweets

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