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Aaron Derfel

23 Apr, 9 tweets, 2 min read

1) Breaking: Quebec posts 60 more sequenced variant cases on Friday for a total of 3,574. More than half of the new sequenced cases are not the B.1.1.7 variant that was first detected in the U.K. late last year.

2) Seventeen of the new variant cases are B.1.351, which was first discovered in South Africa. Abitibi-Témiscamingue posted nine such cases for a total of 141. Montreal added seven cases to 22. This variant has been found in eight regions of Quebec to date.

3) Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean and Outaouais each reported for the first time a single case of P.1, the variant that has caused massive deaths and hospitalizations in Brazil. Montreal added six new such cases for a total of 14. This variant is now in seven regions of the province.

4) The Laurentians declared a single case of B.1.525 on Friday. This is the variant that was first identified in Nigeria and that has been circulating in New York city. This variant has now been found in six regions of Quebec.

5) Back to B.1.1.7, the predominant variant by far in Quebec. Montreal posted 19 more such cases for a cumulative total of 1,949. This more transmissible variant has been detected so far in 11 regions across the province.

6) For the second day in a row, Montreal has reported increases in all four common variants for a total of 34, representing more than half of all such new cases on Friday. Montreal's tally of all variants is now 1,994, comprising nearly 56% of all such cases in Quebec.

7) Quebec's public health institute has yet to add B.1.617 to its daily charts. B.1.617 arose in India and was identified in a Mauricie patient. Perhaps this strain has not been added yet because it's considered technically a "variant of interest" and not a "variant of concern."

8) What's more noteworthy in Friday's data is not the increase of 60 sequenced variant cases, but rather the geographical spread of the different variants across the province. The process of genetically sequencing #COVID19 cases can take two weeks.

9) To conclude with what has become a cliché, Quebec's latest stats on sequenced variant cases underscores just how much this has become a race of the vaccines against the variants. And on Thursday, Quebec administered a record of more than 88,000 doses. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

25 Apr

1) At least one in four Montrealers who's received a first vaccine dose has by now built up enough immunity to not only fend off a #COVID19 infection, but to limit the spread of the virus in the city. In this thread, I'll explore the subject of vaccine coverage in the metropolis.

2) As of April 10, two weeks ago, 25.94% of Montreal’s population had received one #COVID19 vaccine dose. That means that the more than 15,000 people who got vaccinated on that date are now considered to have built up enough immunity, along with those who were inoculated before.

3) Obviously, this segment of the population needs the second dose, the sooner the better. But for now at least, the mass vaccinations appear to have blunted the third wave in Montreal, along with the #pandemic restrictions.

Read 12 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

24 Apr

1) Quebec on Friday disclosed that #COVID19 hospitalizations dropped by 27 to 684. This represented the steepest decline in hospitalizations since Feb. 15., with most of the decrease taking place in Montreal. In this thread, I will examine this latest trend on hospitals.

2) First, though, I wanted to provide some added context by comparing Quebec’s numbers with those in Ontario. Our neighbor to the west reported 2,287 #COVID19 hospitalizations, down from 2,350 the day before. But the overall number of cases is sadly still rising in Ontario.

3) In Montreal, #COVID19 hospitalizations declined by 20 to 249. During the second wave’s peak on Jan. 12, Montreal reported 627 such hospitalizations. Obviously, the latest decrease eases pressure on the acute-care network, but the system is already fractured in many ways.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

23 Apr

1) If there was ever any doubt that the variants are truly driving the third wave in the #COVID19 #pandemic, consider this comparison between Quebec and Ontario. On Feb. 7, Quebec posted a total of 22 variant cases and Ontario 401.

2) By Thursday, the number of variant #COVID19 cases in Quebec climbed to 3,514. By comparison, in Ontario — which is sadly in the midst of a much worse third wave — variant cases have soared to 44,536 in a little over two months.

3) We still don’t know why Ontario was hit so much harder than Quebec with the variants. Is it because Ontario reports much more international air travel than Quebec? Is it because Ontario’s #pandemic restrictions were laxer than those in Quebec?

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

14 Apr

1) Premier François Legault decided not to sugar-coat the #pandemic on Tuesday, warning Quebecers there will be “a lot of uncertainty over the next two months.” Legault spoke of the #COVID19 resurgence in the regions. In this thread, I will focus on what he didn’t speak about.

2) Legault spoke about how Quebecers in their 20s, 30s, and 40s are now being hospitalized for #COVID19 amid the variant-driven third wave. But he didn’t speak about the rise in cases in eldercare homes. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/an…

@mtlgazette

3) As I wrote about in my @mtlgazette column tonight, Quebec’s eldercare residents are overdue their second vaccine shots, especially in regions where the more contagious variants are accelerating. Elders are also being hospitalized in high numbers, as the chart below shows.

Read 12 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

13 Apr

1) In addition to the B.1.1.7 variant that originated in the U.K., there were tentative signs on Monday that three other variants are beginning to pop up in regions across Quebec. In this thread, I will assess what this means.

2) The B.1.1.7 variant is still the predominant one in Quebec, with 1,434 cases, up by five since last week. This doesn’t mean there were only five new cases of B.1.1.7, though. There’s still a backlog of thousands of cases to sequence genetically.

3) Apart from B.1.1.7, the Outaouais declared for the first time a B.1.351 case. This #COVID19 strain originated in South Africa and has been shown to be resistant to the AstraZeneca vaccine. Cases in the B.1.351 hot spot of Abitibi-Témiscamingue inched up by three to 131.

Read 15 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

11 Apr

1) Quebec’s Health Minister expressed concern on Sunday that 58% of new cases across the province are being identified in people under the age of 40 in the third wave. In this thread, I will show how #COVID19 hospitalizations are occurring here in younger age groups, too.

2) Quebec on Sunday posted a total of 608 #COVID19 hospitalizations, up by 25 since Saturday. The chart below shows that 10 of those hospitalizations occurred in Quebecers in their 30s. Still, the predominant group are those in their 60s, 20 years younger than in the first wave.

3) This is happening for two reasons. Many Quebecers in their 80s and 90s have already been vaccinated against #COVID19, although a good number are still being hospitalized for the #pandemic illness, as the chart below reveals.

Read 11 tweets

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