Good morning, all. Before going in this AM, wanted to share some high-level thoughts re: #SK situation with #COVID19. Will try to go into more detail as time allows, but these are some immediate thoughts. My opinion only, please remember. 🧵 begins... (1/n) #COVID19SK
#YQR curve and R0 seem for now to have peaked and are coming down. Hospitalizations & ICU admissions have stabilized. #YQR ICUs still running with ~180% capacity but more beds available now, critical elective surgeries proceeding, etc. (2/n) #COVID19SK
Still widespread community transmission throughout southern SK but has seemed to mostly peak at this point and some places like Moose Jaw are decreasing steadily too. (3/n) #COVID19SK
Opposite dynamic in #YXE & NW SK, where cases & R0 are steadily increasing, along with proportion of cases caused by VoCs. #YXE in similar "pre-surge" state as #YQR around early-to-mid March, for perspective. #YQR just now flattening & decreasing, ~6-7 wks later. (4/n) #COVID19SK
All data & evidence points to significant surge in #YXE, perhaps attenuated to some degree by the fact that more of population has received 1st dose vaccine as of May 1 compared to #YQR as of early/mid March. Surges expected across rest of #SK including NW, etc. (5/n) #COVID19SK
Based on #YQR peak, expect #YXE surge to peak next 4-6 weeks, then hopefully flatten again. Other regions yet unaffected will follow suit but timelines may be slightly different to when surge begins. (6/n) #COVID19SK
Mandated restrictions & measures from mid-March in #YQR, though modest, helped in terms of flattening curve in the city. Similar mandated measures in #YXE instituted immediately would help attenuate anticipated curve & save lives & prevent suffering in the city. (7/n) #COVID19SK
Some key points IMO.
#SK is right in midst of 3rd wave, but most useful to consider different parts of the province separately instead of province as whole. Different parts of province are in different stages of pandemic curve.
(8/n) #COVID19SK
#SK is right in midst of 3rd wave, but most useful to consider different parts of the province separately instead of province as whole. Different parts of province are in different stages of pandemic curve.
(8/n) #COVID19SK
When looking at data & numbers, focus your attention on what is happening in different parts of the province rather than overall numbers if you want to interpret the data in the most accurate way possible.
(9/n) #COVID19SK
(9/n) #COVID19SK
Secondly, b/c #YQR seems to have peaked & #YXE is about to surge, the fact that our two major cities are experiencing surge at different time points means it is less likely our overall provincial critical care capacity will be completely overrun.
(10/n) #COVID19SK
(10/n) #COVID19SK
If both #YQR & #YXR had surged at the same time, we would have been in huge trouble, similar to #ON. But likely b/c of our population density being way less than #ON along with measures to reduce spread of VoCs in #SK from #YQR, we have "spread the surges" out.
(11/n) #COVID19SK
(11/n) #COVID19SK
It is still 100% critical to follow public health guidance, vaccinate ASAP, and make best decisions every day. The limited mandated restrictions mean our #SK curves will come down more slowly than if more aggressive measures were in place, unfortunately.
(12/n) #COVID19SK
(12/n) #COVID19SK
That said, I am cautiously optimistic that the very worst is over in #YQR. Other parts of #SK will feel similar pain, peak, and then it will end again. When complete, the 2nd & 3rd waves in #SK will have taken many #SK lives unnecessarily. It has been tragic.
(end) #COVID19SK
(end) #COVID19SK
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