I fist bought Bitcoin in November 2013. Here is the original article where I applied rudimentary stock to flow analysis, later perfected by @100trillionUSD
My equivalence price target was 700 ounces of gold = one BTC. At currency prices that is around $1.3m.
It kind of created a stir back then and gave the first ever macro valuation model for BTC.
It was also based around adoption effects...
Obviously, I think it actually exceeds the gold relative valuation over time. This cycle might get it to the original fair value, maybe not.
Here is an except for proof and interest:
I held it into 2016 and then added around the Halving...
The only issue - I sold it in the fork wars FUD in 2017 for a 10x profit.
I then began to add it in June 2019 and went all in on the collapse in 2020.
Then I began to add ETH and now have more ETH than bitcoin.
My rational has been made clear and public over time (although much later than those in GMI get to hear about it). I make it public to help people navigate the largest wealth redistribution in history.
I want everyone to win - whether you are a bitcoin HODL'er, a ETH head or a crypto Degen.
I want us all to win.
I'm also very privately helping the worlds biggest hedge funds, asset management giants, family office, the worlds most famous artists and musicians, influencers, media businesses, executive search firm and others capitalize on one the biggest change to business models in history
What a fucking time to be alive!
I am so grateful to be in the position I'm in. Its all a bit bizarre. I used to be so private, but ho hum, it time to stand up and be counted.
The biggest wealth distribution in history is upon us.
Helping everyone, that will satisfy my mission.
That is why I set up Real Vision. That is why we launched Real Vision Crypto. The financial world we live in is complex but the risks have now been offset by the gigantic opportunities....
GMI stands for Global Macro Investor but it could stand for "Gonna Make It!".
Good luck everyone. It's one hell of a ride. Savour the madness of it all. It's happening at lightening speed!
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EU ETS (EU Carbon emissions) continue to be one of the best non-crypto trades in the macro world, outperforming all commodities except lumber. I still think this can double from here this year...
We have covered it well on Real Vision. First with the Citi team who laid out the story...
Bitcoin is nearly as oversold as it was in March 2020...
The weekly RSI is close to the levels that we saw in corrections in the first part of the 2017 bull run, before bitcoin hit hyperspace. These are the pauses that refresh a bull market.
ETH might have a tad further to go, either in time or price...
I have tried so hard to welcome @BitcoinTina, to try to bridge gaps and create understanding on different points of view but he relentlessly attacks if someone doesn't agree. Protects his "god" because it's scary to have someone suggest there isn't one god, his god...Bitcoin
But in the end, its pointless.
He is rude, intolerant and bitter.
He is unwelcoming of others view points. Only sees his beliefs and refuses to listens to anything else. This is EXACTLY what I stand against in this world.
Have your view but don't abuse others for theirs...
It is a dick move and you deserve to be blocked and relegated to irrelevance.
Bitcoin is a god, but is is not THE god. There are no true gods.
I have spend a long time painstakingly showing this. You might prefer BTC and Im cool. You might think others will fail, Im cool.
To be brutally honest, I stare at the chart of ETH/BTC and I see an enormous rounded bottom with potentially huge breakout just above....
When you price anything up in DeFi, NFT, community tokens or even metaverse worlds, everything is basically priced in ETH, including designers time etc. ETH is rapidly becoming the currency of the digital world and BTC is the pristine collateral and base layer.
The ETH space is growing at 100% YoY (vs 50% YOY for BTC) and it is attracting a massive proportion of the developer talent and applications too.
Remember my Bitcoin life raft video? It was prompted by talk from the IMF of a new Bretton Woods. Well, here is Janet Yellen talking of the same. The general idea, as far as I understand, is a global fiscal initiative to drive concerted global growth, whilst keeping FX stable.
But, keeping all FX rates stable while undertaking huge fiscal spending doesn't protect all of the fiat currencies combined from debasement.
Debasement is the enemy, and an overhaul of the global economy is the prize. It's a fine line.
We can hedge the risk with Bitcoin.
And global growth could be unexpected prize as stimulus drives economies to modernise, digitise and re-tool for the future. It is possible but far from certain.
But I think the bet of BTC + Technology investing (including digital assets) will be the best way to prosper.
Remember the Bitcoin Super Massive Black Hole? The idea was that BTC would massively outperform all other assets, sucking in liquidity as it goes. Well, how is it doing this year?