Remember my Bitcoin life raft video? It was prompted by talk from the IMF of a new Bretton Woods. Well, here is Janet Yellen talking of the same. The general idea, as far as I understand, is a global fiscal initiative to drive concerted global growth, whilst keeping FX stable.
But, keeping all FX rates stable while undertaking huge fiscal spending doesn't protect all of the fiat currencies combined from debasement.
Debasement is the enemy, and an overhaul of the global economy is the prize. It's a fine line.
We can hedge the risk with Bitcoin.
And global growth could be unexpected prize as stimulus drives economies to modernise, digitise and re-tool for the future. It is possible but far from certain.
But I think the bet of BTC + Technology investing (including digital assets) will be the best way to prosper.
The Fourth Turning is upon us.
Expect everything to change.
I get the feeling the next 10 years will be nothing like the last 30 years and the asymmetric risks are now skewed to the upside and not downside, but downside risks are not eliminated, of course...
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Remember the Bitcoin Super Massive Black Hole? The idea was that BTC would massively outperform all other assets, sucking in liquidity as it goes. Well, how is it doing this year?
Gold - At the last chance saloon? Gold is now ignoring the dollar, rates and any other correlation and just falls every day. It is approaching monumental support...
Add to that the Daily DeMark signal tomorrow...
And the weekly 9 this week, right on the key support...
I'm finding it fascinating to see traditional finance and business people first trying to get their heads around BTC, then other crypto protocols, then Defi and now NFT's. 1/
At every singe stage in the rapidly evolving ecosystem they have used mean-revertionist thinking as opposed to exponential network effects analysis and therefore everything looks like a bubble or a misallocation of capital.
This is how we were all taught in finance.
With that thinking almost everything reverts to a mean of zero ("it is just Beanie Babies!"). But that misses the fact that even if some, or many project fail, many others are truly building network effects over time
Im doing a lot of thinking around currency debasement and how to measure it. You see, I think everyone looking for it to appear in CPI inflation is likely to be frustrated due to the lack of wage inflation, debt, demographics, technology and globalisation.
We know there is asset price inflation, cause by the printing of money. Here is MSCI World Equity Index. +263% since QE started in 2008.
But when we change the denominator to the G4 Central Bank Balance sheets, we can see that equities have traded sideways since 2008, basically counteracting the balance sheet expansion (and are probably cheap currently as 0.15 appears to be the mean)
It appears that the "Bitcoin is not ESG friendly" is the narrative that I think was started at the ECB to slow institutional adoption, and is now spreading to the media (see today's Guardian for example).
1/
I have had a few institutional asset allocation committees reach out for clarification as they are concerned with ESG mandates vs their desire to own bitcoin.
I want to set them at ease that this is a false narrative.
2/
I know a few of you have looked at this but is there a definitive article on there true costs or relative costs (outside of the cost is very low to secure the blockchain, which doesn't really help the institutions)?
3/
When @JuliaLaRoche discovered me on twitter languishing with less than 1000 followers I explained I was on a mission to democratise the kind of financial information only hedge funds and others got. The world I exclusively lived in.
But I felt people needed and wanted more. They wanted the paying field levelled so they could take control, with confidence and knowledge.
I didn't quite imagine it would blow up like this with 400,000 friends on Twitter. You helped create Real Vision and I can't thank you enough. Hopefully we've paid you back for being part of this incredible journey. Even if just on FinTwit.