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Raoul Pal Profile picture
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21 Apr, 5 tweets, 2 min read
To be brutally honest, I stare at the chart of ETH/BTC and I see an enormous rounded bottom with potentially huge breakout just above....
When you price anything up in DeFi, NFT, community tokens or even metaverse worlds, everything is basically priced in ETH, including designers time etc. ETH is rapidly becoming the currency of the digital world and BTC is the pristine collateral and base layer.
The ETH space is growing at 100% YoY (vs 50% YOY for BTC) and it is attracting a massive proportion of the developer talent and applications too.
At this point in the risk cycle and with ETH 2.0 coming (cheaper fees and less supply), I'm struggling to not sell all my BTC to move my entire core position to ETH.

To be clear - I'm a massive BTC bull, but I think ETH is the better asset allocation for performance right now.
Again, this is no attack on the SoV properties etc of BTC but overtime, ETH has outperformed since inception, which is a non-deniable fact and soon it will probably surpass its ATH vs BTC too

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
22 Apr
I have tried so hard to welcome @BitcoinTina, to try to bridge gaps and create understanding on different points of view but he relentlessly attacks if someone doesn't agree. Protects his "god" because it's scary to have someone suggest there isn't one god, his god...Bitcoin
But in the end, its pointless.

He is rude, intolerant and bitter.

He is unwelcoming of others view points. Only sees his beliefs and refuses to listens to anything else. This is EXACTLY what I stand against in this world.

Have your view but don't abuse others for theirs...
It is a dick move and you deserve to be blocked and relegated to irrelevance.

Bitcoin is a god, but is is not THE god. There are no true gods.

I have spend a long time painstakingly showing this. You might prefer BTC and Im cool. You might think others will fail, Im cool.
Read 6 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
6 Apr
Remember my Bitcoin life raft video? It was prompted by talk from the IMF of a new Bretton Woods. Well, here is Janet Yellen talking of the same. The general idea, as far as I understand, is a global fiscal initiative to drive concerted global growth, whilst keeping FX stable.
But, keeping all FX rates stable while undertaking huge fiscal spending doesn't protect all of the fiat currencies combined from debasement.

Debasement is the enemy, and an overhaul of the global economy is the prize. It's a fine line.

We can hedge the risk with Bitcoin.
And global growth could be unexpected prize as stimulus drives economies to modernise, digitise and re-tool for the future. It is possible but far from certain.

But I think the bet of BTC + Technology investing (including digital assets) will be the best way to prosper.
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
8 Mar
Remember the Bitcoin Super Massive Black Hole? The idea was that BTC would massively outperform all other assets, sucking in liquidity as it goes. Well, how is it doing this year?

+75% versus the S&P 500..
+86.5% versus the NDX
+101% versus Gold
Read 9 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
8 Mar
Gold - At the last chance saloon? Gold is now ignoring the dollar, rates and any other correlation and just falls every day. It is approaching monumental support...
Add to that the Daily DeMark signal tomorrow...
And the weekly 9 this week, right on the key support...
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
7 Mar
I'm finding it fascinating to see traditional finance and business people first trying to get their heads around BTC, then other crypto protocols, then Defi and now NFT's. 1/
At every singe stage in the rapidly evolving ecosystem they have used mean-revertionist thinking as opposed to exponential network effects analysis and therefore everything looks like a bubble or a misallocation of capital.
This is how we were all taught in finance.

With that thinking almost everything reverts to a mean of zero ("it is just Beanie Babies!"). But that misses the fact that even if some, or many project fail, many others are truly building network effects over time
Read 9 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
3 Mar
Im doing a lot of thinking around currency debasement and how to measure it. You see, I think everyone looking for it to appear in CPI inflation is likely to be frustrated due to the lack of wage inflation, debt, demographics, technology and globalisation.
We know there is asset price inflation, cause by the printing of money. Here is MSCI World Equity Index. +263% since QE started in 2008. Image
But when we change the denominator to the G4 Central Bank Balance sheets, we can see that equities have traded sideways since 2008, basically counteracting the balance sheet expansion (and are probably cheap currently as 0.15 appears to be the mean) Image
Read 18 tweets

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