Thread by @RachelBitecofer

1. Just as the 2022 Midterms will begin Nov. 3rd, in the dust of VA's 2021 cycle & the GOP's shameless, tax-payer subsidized witch hunt of @GavinNewsom.

As I tell @StrikePac donor's- the narrative for the cycle gets set then & there.

Hold VA's trifecta & demolish the recall

https://twitter.com/bw71961/status/1388622314401579010

2. & the media narrative will be that mb, just MB, Ds can beat the "midterm effect" in '22. But, lose a ton of seats in VA's House or the majority, &/or barely eek out a recall defeat- the narrative favors the GOP.

Why does this matter, you ask? As I told @harrisonjaime

3. win '21 & Ds can recruit quality cand's to challenge Rs for the House seats they backdoored in 2020 & force the Rs to spend on defense. Those "lost" districts are all what I call my "2nd tier" districts in my model: educated but not as robustly as other

4. districts. More imp than racial demos in frontline districts (though this, I should note, is due in part to D underperformance on the persuasion side of their Latino opps), in my modeling edu is the 2nd best predictor of vote share (increasing w edu for Ds, decreasing for Rs).

5.College voters are realigning to the Left & that is IMP for a Midterm, esp THIS ONE. Edu matters even in a model w a POWERFUL party effect. So, over-investment in dealigning districts, subpar messaging strategy-not focusing down ballot races as referendum on Rs

COVID & obstruction of COVID Relief 2- which the GOP obstructed for 8ths (got 0 heat for it) AND, VIP: failing to use @staceyabrams' coalitional turnout (really double-downing-NOT, some 1/2 ass effort to text low propensity voters (though I suppose ANY focus on LPV is progress)

6. many competitive campaigns not running in-person field, perhaps the single greatest strategic blunder in modern history of American electioneering (but it was the RIGHT THING TO DO!) And YES I made all of these critiques in real time. Go find them for me, will you?! I digress

7. though. This thread is about why Ds HAVE to dominate the VA 21 cycle (here too BTW, under ideal fundamentals most of ⬆️mistakes were also made. The "tier 2" races, all sequestered in Hampton Roads & outside of RVA, were all clearly ID'd by my research, months in advance. I

8. argued they would hold the NOVA seat gains handily & that they needed to divert more resources to HR & RVA- or they would drop winnable races due to insufficient turnout relative to what the GOP would pull out of the coalition (who is treated to all of the above, every race

9. every cycle (as my friend @MichaelSteele will ✅!) The GOP lit it up: all FEAR & referendum. Turnout juicing. In the end, despite losing among Is overall, even among pure Is (yes, I have polling receipts for this) right-leaning Is and Rs outvoted Ds in tinyurl.com/2mknap3t

10. 3 senate seats perfectly situated to flip, and 3 or 4 delegate races. We could use that buffer now, esp for the state senate which Ds have to defend in the even worse fundamentals of '23 (no gov race that cycle). Now don't get me wrong, I ♥️ that the senate flipped,

11. which along with the HOD flipping (thank you courts!) gave VA Ds A GOVERNING TRIFECTA in the former capitol of the Confederacy, no less. And have they used it? Yes they have! Legal pot, serious CJ reform including abolition of the death

12. penalty, and my personal favorite, ACTUAL common sense gun reform. On things we at Wason Center repeatedly found polling in the high 80s (universal back ground checks & red flag laws). An aside, the ENTIRE VA GOP CAUCUS voted against the red flag law. AGAIN. Seriously! That's

13. how EXTREMIST the modern Rep Party is, even in VA! Nevertheless, since state gov't isn't saddled w stupid shit like the filibuster, a narrow D VA senate majority was all our legislators needed to make it a bit harder abusers to shoot their wives. whsv.com/content/news/V…

14. Indeed, not saddled by "tyranny of the minority" like fed Ds, our FAB @vademocrats have been on a TEAR- turning VA into a socialist hellhole that no would want to live in (except for, apparently, everyone!) Did I mention that VA residents age 21+ will be able to pass the

15. coochie to the left-hand side on July 1st. Gonna be a GREAT July 4th over here in the Commonwealth if anyone from the GOP's Fascist Confederacy wants a good, but cheap & close vacay to celebrate America's B-Day & the beginning of liberation of the American South. Now, I

16. mention of this bc likely, you don't give two shits about an off-year cycle in VA (& a distant bullshit recall way out in Cali) but I want everyone reading this to understand that while YOU may not care, why you might be "tired" and "need a break" the Terminator on the other

17. NEVER RESTS. BC the GOP fully appreciates the value of permanent infrastructure, they have built one, and will continue to grow it all summer. They are fresh off the success of their latest evil innovation- digitally targeting minority voters to convince them to not vote

18. for the party of "socialism" who wants to defund the police & let criminal hordes come rape and plunder your suburban neighborhoods. And guess what, like OTHER voters, their targets don't follow politics, don't care much about state level elections, and bc they don't have

19. solid base of knowledge about how the GOP is a hot mess that has destroyed the American economy & now has its sites on democracy itself, ads that come from Rs and are not offset by equally compelling ads by us, WILL work. Yes, studies show that conservative-minded minority

20. voters (esp on the issue of police) were more likely to defect to Trump in 2020- but this diagnosis omits to acknowledge how critical the mechanism of delivery of messaging is. Not only do down-ballot Rs have a bigger dig operation (once you remove fundraising dig- we're ACE

21. at hunting cash- they have a more sophisticated messaging op. Both in terms of WHO they target, where they target them, and most imp, the aggressive, D-brand destroying shit they target them with. Now don't fret, as I like to say, @StrikePac will fix that too & we're aligned

22. VA's top dig firm who already does great work, but who I am working with to develop a bad ass little dig strategy that will make Brad Parscale blush. And that's a guy who just recruited a trans-woman to run as the GOP's standard bearer while the GOP is literally passing law

23. after law abusing our trans friends. So yeah, Parscale isn't prone to blushing (he's shameless). You have to be when you're willing to work w Putin & intentionally suppress voting of voters of color. I assume the GOP will stop at NOTHING to sneak in a W in VA.

24.They rigged their gov primary to avoid nominating the MTG of VA. The GOP is out there, they cant be bargained w, cant be reasoned w, don't feel pity or remorse or fear, & it absolutely will not stop... EVER, until Ds are dead! Aside from their suicide-pact gerrymandering plan

25. the national GOP establishment is already ALL IN in VA. Hell, one dark $ pac has been attacking @ProjectLincoln for mths via direct mail.

So y'all, each & everyone of you, should start caring A LOT about the 2021 election cycle. Put on some big girl pants &

26. AND, if you want to sup the 🪖 we're amassing, ⬇️.

PS: I can't stress this enough, you CAN'T beat Rubio/FL unless you fracture the Miami-Dade Cuban voting block- which CAN BE DONE ONLY 1 WAY: w a D Cuban-American nominee that inspires YOUNG Cubans
strikepac.com

27. Finally, and since you came this far w me, NO, I can not structure my long threads so that each tweet is self-contained. Besides, W.I.T.H. would I want to enable you to RT just 1 part of this thread. RT the whole damn thing! Democracy is dying here!!

(yes, this is a JOKE)