You all thought I was playing around with my years 2020-2024 thesis. You can't $&$) with mother demographics and rates being this low.
With that said, I believe higher rates will be the stabilizing factor here as it has been in the previous expansion. loganmohtashami.com/2021/04/14/homβ¦
We wasted so much time on nonsense that housing was in the bubble from 2012-2019. Then some thought Covid19 would bring an epic crash, and the exact opposite happened because housing was never in a bubble. housingwire.com/articles/this-β¦
This is what happens when people don't read; we have a group of Americans who have the biggest economic whiff on their forehead until they all pass on to the afterlife.
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You Don't have to be a hyperinflation gold bug podcast stock trader who sounds bearing 24/7 to make $$$ in a reflation trade thesis. You just need to know this has limits and don't miss this expansion like you did last time πΊπΈπͺπ½ππ₯ππ₯ππ
Does anyone remember the lack of labor thesis for the lack of housing construction in the previous expansion π
We used to build a lot more housing starts with a lot fewer workers. It was almost as good as the mortgage rate lockdown thesis and that we had no homes to buy thesis from 2013-2019 ππ₯
What's the difference now?!?!? Demand is much better, which means the monthly supply gets below 4.3 months. Post-1996 that is where you want to be for housing starts
1. The price growth in 2013 was not warranted at all; we simply didn't have the right demographics for housing sales to grow that much, but the market itself cooled pricing down as rates went over 4%, the rate of growth pricing fell.
2. That 1.60% -3% move in the 10-year yield created a noticeable softening in demand, and in 2014, purchase application data trended negative on average 20% year over year. It created a solid bottom for us to work from.
No credit speculation, no exotic loan debt structure, no booming mortgage demand, it's not a bubble folks, it's just Americans wanting somewhere to live housingwire.com/articles/this-β¦