You all thought I was playing around with my years 2020-2024 thesis. You can't $&$) with mother demographics and rates being this low.
With that said, I believe higher rates will be the stabilizing factor here as it has been in the previous expansion.…
We wasted so much time on nonsense that housing was in the bubble from 2012-2019. Then some thought Covid19 would bring an epic crash, and the exact opposite happened because housing was never in a bubble.…
This is what happens when people don't read; we have a group of Americans who have the biggest economic whiff on their forehead until they all pass on to the afterlife.

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @LoganMohtashami

2 May
Don't ever forget the inflation playbook πŸ₯‚πŸ˜Ž
You Don't have to be a hyperinflation gold bug podcast stock trader who sounds bearing 24/7 to make $$$ in a reflation trade thesis. You just need to know this has limits and don't miss this expansion like you did last time πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ’ͺπŸ½πŸ“ˆπŸ”₯πŸ˜‰πŸ₯‚πŸŽ‰πŸš€
Read 5 tweets
2 May
Does anyone remember the lack of labor thesis for the lack of housing construction in the previous expansion 😏
We used to build a lot more housing starts with a lot fewer workers. It was almost as good as the mortgage rate lockdown thesis and that we had no homes to buy thesis from 2013-2019 😎πŸ₯‚
What's the difference now?!?!? Demand is much better, which means the monthly supply gets below 4.3 months. Post-1996 that is where you want to be for housing starts
Read 6 tweets
1 May
2013 was an interesting year, and I have referred to that period in some talking points with 2020/2021 data.
1. The price growth in 2013 was not warranted at all; we simply didn't have the right demographics for housing sales to grow that much, but the market itself cooled pricing down as rates went over 4%, the rate of growth pricing fell.
2. That 1.60% -3% move in the 10-year yield created a noticeable softening in demand, and in 2014, purchase application data trended negative on average 20% year over year. It created a solid bottom for us to work from.
Read 15 tweets
29 Apr
Years 2020-2024 was just going to be different than years 2008 -2019
No credit speculation, no exotic loan debt structure, no booming mortgage demand, it's not a bubble folks, it's just Americans wanting somewhere to live…
Which means price growth should slow down…
Read 4 tweets
29 Apr
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ’ͺπŸ½πŸ“ˆπŸ”₯ 😎
If you believed in the 2020 recovery on April 7, 2020. Then this was the best buying opportunity we will ever get in history. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ’ͺπŸ½πŸ“ˆπŸ”₯
Read 5 tweets

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