Why rising diversity isn't quite helping Democrats as much as progressives hope or conservatives fear nytimes.com/2021/05/04/us/…
--Most growth is among non-Black groups of nonwhite voters, who back Ds more modestly
--Rs do fairly well among those groups in the red states that Ds need to flip
--Ds made big, overlooked gains among white voters in many states where diversity might have otherwise been key
--Rs do fairly well among those groups in the red states that Ds need to flip
--Ds made big, overlooked gains among white voters in many states where diversity might have otherwise been key
That second point--the R strength among nonwhite voters in red states like TX/FL--has a blue state corollary: D strength among nonwhite voters in blue states, which adds to the Dem E.C. challenge by padding Dem margins in IL/CA/NY/CT/NJ etc. without adding electoral votes
Here's a somewhat surprising estimate for you, based on census, exit poll and ANES data: Trump '16, Bush '04, Bush '88/84, Reagan 80 all had enough support to prevail if they had faced an electorate as diverse as it was in 2020.
There are two elections that were at least arguably decided by racial demographics, at least judged over a multi-decadal period: Bush '00 and Biden '20. Obviously these were already exceptionally close; most anything can decide these races
If you start turning back the demographic clock, Biden quickly loses AZ/GA/NV and eventually loses PA/WI once you push the racial composition of the nation back a couple of decades.
But even if you go back to the '80s, he's still winning more electoral votes than Clinton
But even if you go back to the '80s, he's still winning more electoral votes than Clinton
In other words, Biden's quite modest gains among white voters since '16 did about as much for his chances as decades of demographic shifts
I should also note that Obama '12--which is often attributed to racial demographic change--can hold all the way back into the 1980s
(That's because Obama's two big strengths were high black turnout and strength among white northerners, especially in the classic Midwestern battleground states where there's been little demographic change)
He would win with Obama 08/12 black turnout, but he would not win with even 2020 demographics (and his actual turnout rate among black v white voters)
https://twitter.com/Ser_Foxalot/status/1389599337706135554?s=20
(in general, Obama's ability to mobilize Black voters was way more useful for Democrats than demographic change. Black voters are concentrated in many key states and far more Democratic)
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