How soon to first dose all adults? We can look back around 11 weeks to D1 volumes to predict how many D2's are needed, and deduct that from an assumed supply - we'll say 3.7m for now.
The chart shows future D1 volumes - apart from 1 week it should gradually increase.
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The chart shows future D1 volumes - apart from 1 week it should gradually increase.
1/6
If we assume c85% of under 50s take-up the jab then we need to reach around 47m to have given everyone who wants it a first dose.
That will take until around 28th June. Any doses after that (above the grey line) can be used to rapidly accelerate second doses if appropriate.
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That will take until around 28th June. Any doses after that (above the grey line) can be used to rapidly accelerate second doses if appropriate.
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If supply is less than 3.7m pw what difference does it make? Even dropping it to 3.3m only pushes it back two weeks, to July 12th, still well ahead of the govt's target of the end of July.
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A further upside is if we continue to see a small prop'n of people not returning for their second jab. If 8% don't then that would increase availability for 1st doses by 1.3m to late June.
That's not really an upside though - much better that everyone gets their two jabs.
4/6
That's not really an upside though - much better that everyone gets their two jabs.
4/6
One thing this analysis doesn't cover is the relative availability of the three vaccines, and the need to have enough Pfizer (or Moderna?) to do the under 30s.
Nevertheless, it looks promising to complete 1st doses well ahead of the govt target - maybe by the end of June.
5/6
Nevertheless, it looks promising to complete 1st doses well ahead of the govt target - maybe by the end of June.
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Finally, once D1's are finished, as noted earlier, we should be able to rapidly accelerate D2's if appropriate.
For Pfizer that would appear sensible - less so for AZ where the longer gap gives better long-term protection.
6/6
For Pfizer that would appear sensible - less so for AZ where the longer gap gives better long-term protection.
6/6
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