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3 May, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Monday vaccine update: 50m passed!

We've now passed 50m total jabs, although today's total (excl Wales) of 255k is another disappointment, down a quarter on last week.

The 7D total continues to fall, to 3.4m.

As yesterday, the shortfall is all in the second doses.

1/5
171k for 2nd doses is down a third, and we are now barely ahead of my 11 week line. The 7D total of 2.6m is the lowest for a fortnight.

What's the prognosis for the next couple of weeks though?

2/5
The yellow line of 1st doses in Feb is now starting to fall, and will drop gradually from c3.1m pw to 1.9m over the next 4 weeks. That should mean it's a bit easier to keep up with the 2nd dose requirement, and hopefully give a bit more leeway for 1st doses too.

3/5
We also know in mid Apr the govt upped the estimate for production until mid May from 3.2m to 3.7m, (similar to the levels we were seeing until a few days) ago. So more encouragement that we can keep up with 2nd doses and gradually increase 1st doses.
4/5
 assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Finally, one factor not yet taken into consideration is the prop'n of those not taking up the 2nd dose. That is around 8% to 10% in the oldest age groups (eg Wales shown). That also gives more scope to press on with 1st doses, although much better that we get that to 100%.

5/5

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts Profile picture
4 May
How soon to first dose all adults? We can look back around 11 weeks to D1 volumes to predict how many D2's are needed, and deduct that from an assumed supply - we'll say 3.7m for now.

The chart shows future D1 volumes - apart from 1 week it should gradually increase.

1/6 Image
If we assume c85% of under 50s take-up the jab then we need to reach around 47m to have given everyone who wants it a first dose.

That will take until around 28th June. Any doses after that (above the grey line) can be used to rapidly accelerate second doses if appropriate.

2/6 Image
If supply is less than 3.7m pw what difference does it make? Even dropping it to 3.3m only pushes it back two weeks, to July 12th, still well ahead of the govt's target of the end of July.
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
1 May
A paper for SAGE released yesterday analyses hospital admissions post vaccination. Reinforcing the point that one dose does not give full protection, 400 people entered hospital and subsequently died who displayed symptoms after vaccination.
1/6 assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The majority of these (72%) showed symptoms within 21 days of the jab, so probably were infected prior to the jab, or before immunity develops. However, 113 people only showed symptoms after 21 days or more (likely "vaccine failure").

2/6
You can see also that the "over 21 day" cases weren't confined to the few days after, but are spread over a longer period. (Note these graphs relate to admissions, but the point is the same.)

The decline in the green zone will be at least partly due to declining prevalence.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
30 Apr
The latest ONS infection survey shows dramatic falls across the UK, with England falling by over 40% and Wales by 50% in just one week. (Data is to 24th April.)

E falls from 0.17% to 0.10% or 1 in 1,010.
W falls from 0.12% to 0.06% or 1 in 1,570

1/6
There are slightly less dramatic falls in Scotland and Northern Ireland, though still very encouraging.

NI falls from 0.15% to 0.11% or 1 in 940
S falls from 0.18% to 0.16% or 1 in 640.

2/6
Regionally, only Yorkshire and Humber now rounds to 0.2% (actually 0.19%).

In the opposite corner the SW is now shown as 0.0%, though is actually 0.03% or 1 in 2,980.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
30 Apr
The latest @ONS survey on vaccine sentiment shows continuing strong support to have (or have had) the vaccine. There's still the downward shape by age, but even below 30 it's put at 88%.

We have started to see a downward trend in reality too, as we work through the ages.

1/5
As noted yesterday, for England the 50-54 group is not quite yet at 90%, which suggests the actual picture is slightly lower than the survey (which puts 50-69 at 96%). Whether this is due to hesitancy or practical issues with attending is not obvious.

2/5
Other data in the survey shows higher proportions of younger people not maintaining social distancing with friends, whereas for older ages it's mixing with family members that is more the reason for not following the guidance.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
29 Apr
Thu vaccine update (take 2 - apologies)

597k total doses today, up 12%, so the 7D total is now up to 3.7m.

First doses of 134k are up 14%, so we are now giving first jabs to nearly 850k each week.

1/5 ImageImage
2nd doses of 463k are up a healthy 11%, and bring the total to over 14m. That's broadly equivalent to the most vulnerable groups 1 to 4, though as we've seen throughout the distribution isn't quite that simple.

2.85m over 7 days is another new record.

2/5 Image
England take-up figures show first doses making slow progress, (though this predates the opening of 42-44).

It's disappointing that the 50-54 group has not reached 90%, so we can see a clear trend downwards from 65 to 50. It's too early to form a view on 45-49 yet though.

3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
28 Apr
The PHE study reported widely today shows that those who are vaccinated who still get infected are 40% to 50% less likely to pass it on to a household contact than those unvaccinated.

1/7
 khub.net/documents/1359…
This is an important finding, as household setting transmission is more difficult to suppress through the interventions we are all familiar with, particularly in large multi-generational households.

2/7
This benefit is on top of the lower risk in becoming infected, which is typically around 65% after a first dose (there isn't enough data on any further protection from a 2nd dose).

So the overall first dose effect in terms of protecting your family becomes around 85%.
3/7
Read 7 tweets

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