Thread by @astaines

So @President_MU presents some positive news this evening. Things are steady, but not steady in a good place.
This is his take :

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1389690379184787458?s=20

Here are some estimates of R (how fast this is growing or shrinking)
In brief, it has stopped going up, which is good, and it's likely to stay close to 1 for the next while - so case numbers will fall very slowly.

Despite much pointless haranguing, case rates in Donegal are falling steadily.
These are rates over 14 days.

These are county level rates over 7 days
I worry about the rise in Cork.

Recent rates of #COVID19 by age tell a story of two pandemics - one falling in older people, likely due to vaccination and social isolation.
The other, rising, quire fast, in younger people, including school going children.

Hospitalization rates are falling for older people, but still quite high for those in their 60's. Again, this is very likely vaccination plus social isolation.

Positive test percentage is steady, or viewed with the eye of faith, could be falling very very slowly.

Here is the last 60 days of test results.
Steady for the last month.

So, we're in a race to get vaccines done, before the next spike in cases. So far we are neck and neck.
This costs
400 cases/day
~ 2 unnecessary deaths/day
40 to 50 cases of #LongCovid
We'd be much more likely to win if we let local public health teams do their job.
@WeCanBeZero

@threadreaderapp please unroll