1. This column by @tomfriedman is correct about the real and present dangers to USA democracy from the GOP Big Lie.

But it fails to diagnose the causes -- & thus the effective solutions.

A short 1-5 thread.

2. It is not enough to support GOP moderates. There are too few.

The problem is institutional incentives.

Due to gerrymandering, $$, & primaries, GOP legislators get reelected to Congress & State Houses by pandering to MAGA activists, not expanding their support.
3. But the GOP can't win a maj of the popular vote for the WH with only the MAGA base.

Only 40% of Americans are self-identified Republicans.
4. THIS is why the 'Big Lie' resonates so deeply within the party. It's not just Trump.

GOP leaders have concluded that if they cannot win by fair means, they will manipulate the rules instead.

And they can; State election laws are left in the hands of partisan legislators.
5. The solution is not to rely on the dwindling band of individual moderates like Romney but to pass major structural reform.

Bill HR1 should be the number one priority for democrats and Democrats. Without this, things will get far, far worse after 2022.

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More from @PippaN15

20 Nov 20
Six risks for American democracy from the transition crisis.

A short thread summarizing my Harvard talk yesterday.

Video of the CES panel will be available soon from:

Download all pp slides from my talk @:
2/10 Theory
3/10 Assessing the severity of risks from the transition crisis
Read 10 tweets
20 Sep 20
1/ Will disputes over Nov 3rd divide America further?

A short thread summarizing what we know from research about risks of contentious elections, drawn from our 2015 Routledge book:
2/ 'Contentious elections’ are defined as contests involving major challenges, with different degrees of severity, to the legitimacy of electoral actors, procedures, or outcomes.

Here's the model we used to identify successive steps in the process...
3/ Evidence is needed to diagnose underlying symptoms...
Read 10 tweets
5 Aug 20
1/ Is there a cancel culture in political science? A short thread summarizing key results from a new research paper...More at dropbox.com/s/y5a0bwu82to2… Image
2/ Academics in political science skew moderate left - especially in America. Confirms long-standing body of research since Lazarsfeld (1958). But the imbalance doesn't necessarily mean growing intolerance of dissent and contrarian voices. Image
3/ So a new global survey asked political scientists whether, in their experience, several aspects had got better or worse. Here's one indicator...'respect for open debate', with the results among all political scientists. No evidence of a substantial problem, it appears. Image
Read 8 tweets
18 Jul 20
1/ Who's switched in the US electorate since 2016? Short thread.

Here's the change in @YouGov polls.

Biggest social group shifts? Hispanics fall (-8).

Trump consolidates GOP base (84>91%).

Good news for Trump?

But Trump's support among Independents falls 4%...
2/ And compared with 2016, Biden broadens the Dem coalition by picking up Independents (+8) and Moderates (+6)...
3/ Compositional effects are critical (based on actual vote in 2016 and registered voters July 2020).

% of GOP in electorate shrinks (-6%)

And % of Conservatives also falls (-6%), as more Americans see themselves as liberal (+7).

(COVID-19 effect or Trump effects or both?)
Read 5 tweets
30 Mar 20
A new research paper on European values with some more background on the Hungarian developments in comparative perspective:

1. The tipping point in Hungary has been reached after a long slide.
2. But it would be misleading to read Hungarian public opinion directly from the actions of the Orban regime.
3. Long-term trends in Hungarian public support for democratic values does not fall.
Read 4 tweets
23 Feb 20
1/ Are there varieties of populists in America?
/2 Definitiopn of Populism
3/Varieties worldwide use populist language but differ in their values
Read 14 tweets

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