2. It is not enough to support GOP moderates. There are too few.
The problem is institutional incentives.
Due to gerrymandering, $$, & primaries, GOP legislators get reelected to Congress & State Houses by pandering to MAGA activists, not expanding their support.
3. But the GOP can't win a maj of the popular vote for the WH with only the MAGA base.
Only 40% of Americans are self-identified Republicans.
4. THIS is why the 'Big Lie' resonates so deeply within the party. It's not just Trump.
GOP leaders have concluded that if they cannot win by fair means, they will manipulate the rules instead.
And they can; State election laws are left in the hands of partisan legislators.
5. The solution is not to rely on the dwindling band of individual moderates like Romney but to pass major structural reform.
Bill HR1 should be the number one priority for democrats and Democrats. Without this, things will get far, far worse after 2022.
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1/ Will disputes over Nov 3rd divide America further?
A short thread summarizing what we know from research about risks of contentious elections, drawn from our 2015 Routledge book:
2/ 'Contentious elections’ are defined as contests involving major challenges, with different degrees of severity, to the legitimacy of electoral actors, procedures, or outcomes.
Here's the model we used to identify successive steps in the process...
3/ Evidence is needed to diagnose underlying symptoms...
1/ Is there a cancel culture in political science? A short thread summarizing key results from a new research paper...More at dropbox.com/s/y5a0bwu82to2…
2/ Academics in political science skew moderate left - especially in America. Confirms long-standing body of research since Lazarsfeld (1958). But the imbalance doesn't necessarily mean growing intolerance of dissent and contrarian voices.
3/ So a new global survey asked political scientists whether, in their experience, several aspects had got better or worse. Here's one indicator...'respect for open debate', with the results among all political scientists. No evidence of a substantial problem, it appears.