Thread by @andrewflood

435 #Covid19Ireland positive swabs which is 99% of last Wednesdays - note the bank holidays might have artificially depressed that though. Perhaps not as 2.24% positivity on 19,406 tests, only 1000 less than last week
/1

Average of 435 pos swabs over the last 3 days is 98% of same days last week. That fits recent pattern of static cases and projects as
388 wk1
379 wk2
371 wk3
363 wk4 - June 2nd
355 wk5
348 wk6
340 wk7
333 wk8
/2

GP referral data from Tuesday will appear as Weds/Thurs swabs - thankfully not showing a bank holiday extra spike & in fact 'clinically likely Covid' is below every day last week which would suggest swabs in the low 400s. Loth, Galway & Wexford were the hotspots /3

Not all tests via GP route but room for optimism that swabs & so cases will be lower this week than last. If so very good news as gets us to end of wk5 of the 6 wk Vulnerable Period Ahead. Huge collective achievement to be below rather than far above opening case level /4

The substantial 401k vaccine delivery last week should complete vaccination of the bulk of the most vulnerable in the next days not far off original VPA timetable so while still not without danger of 4th wave consequences much reduced is we slip-up /5

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1389936705529057282?s=20

But as the north demonstrates we will need a lot more vaccine coverage (they are 50% dose 1) before any sort of total back to normal becomes possible. An early exit depends on suppressing cases so any risks of doing too much too soon are reduced /6

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1389934087318745092?s=20