Thread by @andrewflood

467 #Covid19Ireland positive swabs today is 96% of last Thursday despite 21k tests. Positivity at 2.2% - looks quite likely now this weeks swabs will come in under last weeks so a reduction /1

Average of 421 pos swabs over last 3 days which is 96% of same days last week. Projects as a slow reduction which will be accelerated by vaccination
404 wk1
387 wk2
371 wk3
355 wk4 - June 3rd
341 wk5
326 wk6
313 wk7
300 wk8
/2

This is a big deal as it looks likely from GP referrals that we will get to the end of week 5 of the 6 'Vulnerable Period Ahead' weeks below the case levels of March 31st rather than 1200+ cases above that level. There it gets increasingly hard for things to go badly wrong /3

HSE press conference just now says that they intend to complete 60-70 year old dose 1 vaccinations next week and get over 100k from the 50-60 yr old group done. So the VPA would end with all very high risk & over 60s with increasing protection & 50+ on their way /4

It's worth taking a look at my thread tracking the weeks stats in the north, we will probably be at a similar level of vaccinations in a little over a month

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1390301670551080966?s=20