467 #Covid19Ireland positive swabs today is 96% of last Thursday despite 21k tests. Positivity at 2.2% - looks quite likely now this weeks swabs will come in under last weeks so a reduction /1
Average of 421 pos swabs over last 3 days which is 96% of same days last week. Projects as a slow reduction which will be accelerated by vaccination
404 wk1
387 wk2
371 wk3
355 wk4 - June 3rd
341 wk5
326 wk6
313 wk7
300 wk8
/2
This is a big deal as it looks likely from GP referrals that we will get to the end of week 5 of the 6 'Vulnerable Period Ahead' weeks below the case levels of March 31st rather than 1200+ cases above that level. There it gets increasingly hard for things to go badly wrong /3
HSE press conference just now says that they intend to complete 60-70 year old dose 1 vaccinations next week and get over 100k from the 50-60 yr old group done. So the VPA would end with all very high risk & over 60s with increasing protection & 50+ on their way /4
It's worth taking a look at my thread tracking the weeks stats in the north, we will probably be at a similar level of vaccinations in a little over a month

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More from @andrewflood

6 May
Lab evaluation of Covid antigen test Lidl are selling on *suspected* Covid subjects (not random)
1 in 27 positive results will actually be PCR negative
1 in 119 negative results will actually be PCR positive
*when* the test is administered by experts
technomed.at/files/technome…
I'd imagine people randomly testing themselves at home if going to reduce those accuracies quite a bit. Also with the negatives the issue that there's about an additional 40% false negative from people testing themselves too soon after infection for it to be picked up
One of the entertaining things about the push for mass use of antigen testing is the conspiracy theorists with wild concerns about the very low rate of false positives from PCR seem strangely keen on tantigen tests that have many times the false positive rate
Read 9 tweets
5 May
435 #Covid19Ireland positive swabs which is 99% of last Wednesdays - note the bank holidays might have artificially depressed that though. Perhaps not as 2.24% positivity on 19,406 tests, only 1000 less than last week
/1
Average of 435 pos swabs over the last 3 days is 98% of same days last week. That fits recent pattern of static cases and projects as
388 wk1
379 wk2
371 wk3
363 wk4 - June 2nd
355 wk5
348 wk6
340 wk7
333 wk8
/2
GP referral data from Tuesday will appear as Weds/Thurs swabs - thankfully not showing a bank holiday extra spike & in fact 'clinically likely Covid' is below every day last week which would suggest swabs in the low 400s. Loth, Galway & Wexford were the hotspots /3
Read 6 tweets
4 May
#Covid19Ireland swabs for last 3 now days out & summarised as 'could be worse'
Sun - 489, 106% last Sunday
Mon - 391, 103% last Monday
Today - 362, 92% last Tuesday
Positivity today is 2.6%
Average of those..
/1 Image
Thats 414 positive swabs on average over the last 3 days which is 100.4% same days last week. Which would project as
416 wk1
417 wk2
419 wk3
421 wk4 - 1st June
422 wk5
424 wk6
/2
It's probable that's artificially low because of the bank holiday & tomorrows will also be artificially low. But still very welcome on day 29 of the 42 'Vulnerable Period Ahead' days that we remain below the level of cases that opened VPA rather than now being near 1,800 /3 Image
Read 6 tweets
4 May
Nearly 250 flights into Ireland had at least 1 case of Covid19 since Jan 1 but up to 80% of close contacts on some have never been traced. Flight manifests take 7+ days to arrive, over 50 of those flights have included cases of 'variants of concern’ irishexaminer.com/news/arid-4028…
Flight manifests are typically not delivered to contact tracers until 7 - 10 days after the flight has landed.
“So the true rate of inflight transmission will remain a mystery, and the cases we miss will show up as increased community transmission.” 👀
You’d have to wonder whose interests are served by a system that minimizes the number of positive cases traced from flights. It allows airlines to make claims about flight safety that are probably unsustainable. But it has meant deaths & longer lockdowns for the rest of us
Read 6 tweets
1 May
Looking at the NPHET cabinet briefing slides I'd presume that highlighted construction outbreak with 116 linked cases is the Intel site which was deemed essential back in January
The 4101 cases amongst Irish Travellers in the 3rd wave is about 10% of the population, so a rate at least 4-5 times the general population. For 4 weeks Travellers made up over 5% of cases /2
Variant update to the 27th - the missing information here in relation to B1351 is what proportion of the recent 16 are travel related and how many are community in particular of unknown contact. /3
Read 6 tweets
30 Apr
Bad news on #Covid19Ireland swabs with a large jump to 658 today, 120% last Friday, close to 3% positivity on 22k tests which gets us back to rising cases but is also highest figure in a month /1
3 day average of swabs now 527, highest in over 3 weeks and 102% of same days last week. Projects as slow increase which if this is a one off high day & not a trend is manageable /2
540 wk1
554 wk2
567 wk3
581 wk4
595 wk5 - May 4
610 wk6
625 wk7
This is more in line which would have been expected from the higher GP referrals for Covid testing throughout the week. Perhaps this is the labs processing a lot of these yesterday - if so less worrying as explainable and reducing? Or big outbreak(s) not coming via that route /3
Read 5 tweets

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