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Carbon Brief

5 May, 7 tweets, 4 min read

@ayeshatandon

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NEW | Limiting warming to 1.5C would ‘halve’ land-ice contribution to sea level rise by 2100 | @ayeshatandon j.mp/3ePH0AM

NEW | Guest post: Overshooting 2C risks rapid and unstoppable sea level rise from Antarctica j.mp/3ejoK3C

(1/7)

@nature

Today, we bring you coverage of two @nature papers.

1. Projects 25cm of sea level rise from land ice melt by 2100 under current emission pledges.

2. Projects greater mass loss from Antarctica, warning of an “abrupt jump” in Antarctic ice melt if warming exceeds 2C.

(2/7)

The first study brings together 84 authors from 62 institutions.

The authors look at six scenarios for 21st century temperature rise.

Limiting warming to 1.5C instead of following current pledges could halve the sea level rise from melting land half ice, they find.

(3/7)

The study suggests that 21st century melting from the Antarctic ice sheet is the same in all scenarios tested.

However, the authors find that this loss increases 5X when using “pessimistic” projections of ice sheet behaviour.

(4/7)

@flimsin

Carbon Brief’s coverage of the study includes comments from @flimsin @jlbamber @IceNowicki @Dr_Gilbz @JohnChurchOcean and @mjsiegert.

(5/7)

The 2nd study focuses on Antarctica, finding that ice melt at 1.5C or 2C of warming continues at similar levels as today – albeit for centuries to come.

However, overshooting these limits brings “significant risks of rapid, irreversible sea level rise before 2100”.

(6/7)

@CarbonBrief

In a @CarbonBrief guest article, the authors explain that key to this risk is a process called “marine ice-cliff instability”.

In scenarios consistent with 3C of warming, they find “a sharp jump” in sea level rise, triggered by the “rapid retreat” of the Thwaites glacier.

(7/7)

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