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Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
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5 May, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Daily dose of RCP8.5

Apocalypse porn (L) axios.com/antarctica-ice…

New Paper (R) nature.com/articles/s4158…

Of course, NDCs as BAU do not remotely equal RCP8.5 ImageImage
This is pretty poor and I'm surprised it wasn't caught in review

"a +3C scenario representing current policies" is being used here as a euphemism for RCP8.5-as-BAU

By "+3C scenario" it simply means that the scenario passes through +3C on its way to 8C in 2500

LOL
Clever ImageImage
In 2500 RCP8.5 is actually RCP12.0
🤫 Image
Smuggling into a paper RCP12.0 (as RCP85 = current policies = 3C) is a new one for me, but I guess we will see more of this as RCP8.5 becomes both obviously problematic and at the same time, so seductive to continue to use as BAU

/end

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
4 May
Hot off the press
The latest from Vaclav Smil on the energy transition via @jpmorgan
am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-ma…
Smil on Will Ferrell and Norway's EVs
The US EV challenge is large
But if EVs can succeed in the US, they can succeed everywhere
Read 8 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
30 Apr
A great paper by @JessicaWeinkle
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

"the extent to which the insurance industry directs, funds & validates the production & use of science for estimating risk is itself a full blown political enterprise that functions to prioritize industry interests"
Weinkle documents the co-optation of scientists by the insurance industry to create regulatory-friendly research that appears to be "independent"
The use of the resulting research by industry goes unchallenged and in fact, legitimizes the work of the (no so) "independent" experts as authoritative because industry is using it ... so a mutually reinforcing legitimization circle
Read 5 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
29 Apr
Biden Has Elevated the Job of Science Adviser.
Is That What Science Needs?

Excellent stage setter for Lander hearing today by @WilliamJBroad

nytimes.com/2021/04/29/sci…
You can watch the Lander OTSP confirmation hearing here in about 1 hour: commerce.senate.gov/2021/4/nominat…
Here are five policy questions that I recommended be put to Lander at the hearing:
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/five-questio…
Read 23 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
28 Apr
There is an interesting investigative journalism project to be done on the revolving door between climate science & policy and private sector climate services

Just as one example, John Kerry's predecessor as "climate envoy" co-founded a consulting firm that feeds off of RCP8.5
Absolutely fascinating how climate scenarios (RCPs, SSPs & their derivatives) are enabling entirely new markets for consulting based on financial risk assessments of fictional futures

It is also amazing how much money is being paid to explore these outdated, fictional futures
Observing the monetization of climate scenarios I am reminded of this passage from Rayner and Sarewitz 2021 @TheBTI Journal on how the Chesapeake Bay Program confused models and reality
thebreakthrough.org/journal/no-13-…
Read 7 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
26 Apr
🧵
Happy Monday
I'm going to let you in on a secret
It is out in the open but I doubt you've heard about it

Th most recent CMIP6 modeling studies of tropical cyclones/hurricanes project no detectable changes in storm metrics most associated with damage ... under RCP8.5 ... 1/n
Kreusseler et al GRL look at "integrated kinetic energy" (IKE) as a metric of potential damage and in model projections find "no significant changes in lifetime maximum IKE between present climate conditions and a projected climate scenario"
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
Very important
Kreussler et al support Klotzbach et al 2020:
"minimum in MSLP seems to be a better predictor of IKE in HR than the max wind speed, which tends to support the use of central pressure deficit as a better proxy than max surface winds to estimate TC damage"
Read 10 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
23 Apr
🧵
For the 6th time in the past 6 years US tornado counts through 22 April are below average (2005-2020)

I was curious ... does a quiet start suggest a quiet year?

Data: @NOAA @NWSSPC Image
The answer is -- yes -- a quiet start does to some degree suggest a quiet year

Here is the relationship of tornadoes through April 22nd and the year's total

Counts through April 22nd average ~28% of the annual total & regression r^2 is ~0.39

Data: @NOAA @NWSSPC Image
Evidence suggests decreasing tornado incidence

Our work shows a long-term decline in normalized tornado losses (in fact the decline is so pronounced it is evidence in non-normalized data as well)

Data updated from: doi.org/10.1080/174778… Image
Read 6 tweets

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