Thread by @faisalislam

As we await the Bank of England’s new forecast and policy decisions - furlough statistics released this morning show use of the job retention scheme still high, but down just ahead of lifting of lockdown at end March - 4.2 million. Cumulative £61.3bn spent supporting wages.

Bank of England: “GDP is expected to rise sharply in 2021 Q2” and recover to pre Covid levels over the remainder of this year “absent restrictions”...
Outlook remains uncertain.
Policy unchanged

Lost pandemic output now forecast to be made up within 2021, says Bank of england:

Bank of England projects GDP growth in 2021 will be 7.25%, so a material increase on the 5% projected in February, thanks to vaccine progress and Government fiscal support

Peak unemployment after pandemic slashed - assumed at nearly 8% before, now just 5.5%, thanks to extension of furlough scheme to beyond point of full recovery, stronger recovery, and less damage from pandemic than assumed...

That’s an assumption of 700k jobs no longer being lost

Bank of Eng, on back of surveys and spending data, says that vaccinated Brits feel safer, and say they are going to spend more going forward. Bank has upped its assumption about proportion of £130 billion plus in “forced savings” from pandemic now being spent - doubling to 10%.

Governor Andrew Bailey - “remains too early to judge” whether trade has been it by post Brexit transition period as forecast ... exports were hit than materially rebounded, imports remain weak, he says.

Bank of England draws attention to this ONS chart showing only 1 in 20 double vaccinated over 80s think there is a major personal risk from Covid, compared with half pre-vaccination - if echoed across ages would see big fall in voluntary social distancing, and big boost economy