Thread by @faisalislam

One pattern to look for over weekend is impact of massive economic state interventions (in emergency)on politics.

No bigger policy impact than interventions that keep you paid & in a job, & then jabbed & able to regain freedom.

In theory would boost all incumbent Governments

…call is looking good as we stand - incumbents across Britain benefit from intervening to affect people’s lives during this crisis, like never before.

truly staggering to really consider how many Britons have been directly impacted by actions of Governments over past 12 months

incumbent party in England wins councils/councillors, 11 years into Westmin Govt

incumbent party in Scotland gains constituencies, 10 years into Holyrood Govt

incumbent party in Wales gets working majority matching best result, after 22 years in charge in Cardiff

Vaccine Vote.

*14 years for SNP in Scotland of course including first Salmond minority administration, which I should have done.

There’s been 11m private sector wages funded by taxpayer, 2.2m self employed - about half number in total private sector workforce (26.8m)

35m first dose vaccinations, 16.7m fully vaccinated. (Cf 15m nhs flu jabs

Incredible numbers directly impacted by the state in past year

Quantitative example from Bank of England who reported impact from ONS survey of two jabs - over 80s thinking there was a “major risk” personally fell from 50% pre vaccination to 5% after two jabs…

difficult to imagine precedents of Govt interventions with such direct impacts

for context on those 13m wages /self employments taxpayer-paid in past year c/w 26.8m private sector jobs…

ordinarily about 7m working age recipients of benefits/state support. These won’t overlap fully with above.

many millions received in work state support for first time