At #Madhyamgram assembly segment, the Muslim voters are around 29%. In 2021 assembly election, the Muslim vote got divided between TMC & ISF. @AITCofficial & ISF both managed to get 48% of the Muslim votes. BJP polled only 1% of Muslim votes.
What went wrong for @MamataOfficial in #Nandigram ? Interestingly @AITCofficial swept #Bengal. It did pretty well in #Medinipur region. Still she lost in Nandigram which is against the trend of the election. I am trying to analyze the mistakes in strategy by her. 1/n
Now to fight election u need to read game theory. U need to predict what could be the opposition move. #Subhendu could only win election by polarizing voters in religious line. He can't defeat @MamataOfficial by any other means. 2/n
In such a context, @MamataOfficial made a tactical error. She made #AbuSufiyan as her election agent at #Nandigram . Also she was dependent on #AbuTaher. Both these leaders have muscle power. It made the election polarized. #AbuSufiyan is not considered as non corrupt. 3/n
Analyzing recent #Tribal Voting Patterns and Trends..There are 51 parliament seats in Central India (Chattisgarh,MP,Gujarat,Rajasthan,Odisha,Jharkhand n Maharastra) where Tribal voters are more than 20%. What are the indications in #assemblyelections2018 ? Lets analyze.
In #Chattisgarh there are 7 Parliament seats where #Tribal Population is >20%. @BJP4India won all 7 in 2014 parliament election. The avg. tribal population in these seats is 44.5%. @BJP4India lost an average vote% of 17.5% in these seats. Huge loss. Refer the attached pics.
In #MP there are 10 Parliament seats where #Tribal Population is >20%. @BJP4India won 9 in 2014 parliament election. The avg. tribal population in these seats is 42.8%. @BJP4India lost an average vote% of 11.4% in these seats. Huge loss. Refer the attached pic.