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Partha Das @parthachanakyya
, 7 tweets, 9 min read Read on Twitter
Analyzing recent #Tribal Voting Patterns and Trends..There are 51 parliament seats in Central India (Chattisgarh,MP,Gujarat,Rajasthan,Odisha,Jharkhand n Maharastra) where Tribal voters are more than 20%. What are the indications in #assemblyelections2018 ? Lets analyze.
In #Chattisgarh there are 7 Parliament seats where #Tribal Population is >20%. @BJP4India won all 7 in 2014 parliament election. The avg. tribal population in these seats is 44.5%. @BJP4India lost an average vote% of 17.5% in these seats. Huge loss. Refer the attached pics.
In #MP there are 10 Parliament seats where #Tribal Population is >20%. @BJP4India won 9 in 2014 parliament election. The avg. tribal population in these seats is 42.8%. @BJP4India lost an average vote% of 11.4% in these seats. Huge loss. Refer the attached pic.
In #Rajasthan there are 3 Parliament seats where #Tribal Population is >20%. @BJP4India won all 3 in 2014 parliament election. The avg. tribal population in these seats is 53%. @BJP4India lost an average vote% of 12.59% in these seats. Huge loss. Refer the attached pic.
So there r 20 parliament seats from #Rajasthan, #MP, #Chattisgarh where #Tribal Population is >20%. @BJP4India won 19 of them in 2014 parliament election. In 2018 Assembly Election, #BJP lost an avg vote of 13.7%. This trend will continue in other states as well.
There are 8 seats from #Odisha, 8 from #Gujarat, 9 from #Jharkhand & 6 from #Maharastra where #Tribal population is more than 20%. In total there r 51 parliament seats with tribal population >20%. @BJP4India won 41 & @INCIndia won only 1 seat in 2014.
@BJP4India will find it tough to maintain a seat tally of 17 from these 51 seats in 2019 unless @BJP4India start making a serious outreach to #Tribals. Happy hunting ground for @INCIndia in the tribal belt. If #Congress can act smartly in Odisha, they can surprise all in 2019.
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