Missing election night count? I bring to you a @ScotVoting Election Night Quiz @EdinburghPIR @merylkenny @AlanConvery @marcgeddes @ProfJMitchell @McEwen_Nicola @CCC_Research @PoliticalBibby @markdiffley1 @shephard_mark @HzBrandenburg

5 rounds, from The Basics to Full SES Geek
Winner gets bragging rights & chance to co-chair the Constituency Christmas Carol round if @EdinburghPIR are silly enough to let me run it again.

Answers posted Sat
@robjohns75 @cjcarman @chrishanretty @Jaclarner @frasmcm @niceonecombo @MalcH @ClarkAlistairJ
The Basics
1 Easy start. The 73 constituencies in 1999 were based on the then-72 Westminster seats in Scotland. Where did the 73rd constituency come from?

2 Which Scottish constituency has only ever been represented by people named Alasdair?
3 (2 points) 2003 produced the lowest something and the highest something. What?

4 For which Holyrood election were postal ballots ‘on demand’ first available?

5 Any Holyrood constituencies represented only by women? If so, name them. No points for Dumbarton.
Trends and Facts

6 We all know Jackie Baillie is the only MSP standing for election who has represented the same constituency since 1999. There is a 2nd MSP who could lay claim to that, were it not for the pesky boundary (name) changes. Who is it?
7 And which other constituency has Labour held since 1999?

8 Two constituencies are tied for the highest proportion of ‘white-British’ residents. One is represented by a Conservative at Holyrood, the other by a Conservative at Westminster. What are they?
9 The first Holyrood election saw 14 new MSPs who were simultaneously sitting as MPs. Since then, how many dual mandate MSP-MPs have there been?

10 Which election saw a record number of local councillors elected?
The History Round
11 (2 points) For one in every five days since 1964 the Secretary of State for Scotland has come from one town. What is the town? And what is the Scottish constituency that overlaps with it?
12 (3 points) Name one of the constituencies represented by 3 separate parties in the Scottish Parliament since 1999

13 (2 points) Which candidate in the 2021 election has represented more constituencies (across Holyrood and Westminster) than any other? How many constituencies?
14 (4 points) What were the four principles of the Consultative Steering Group?

15 Who led the working group set up by the Labour Party to examine electoral systems for possible devolved legislatures in 1992?
The 2021 Election Round

15 (3 points) One former presiding officer has a family member standing in this election. Who is the presiding officer, who is the candidate and where are they standing?
16 Campaigners weren’t allowed to knock on your door unless the Covid infection rate was below what? A) 50/100,000 b) 45/100,000 c) 25/100,000

17 The electoral franchise has now been extended to prisoners with custodial sentences of less than 12 months. There has been a
presumption against short custodial sentences, extending to year-long sentences in 2019. The latest data are from just before this. How many prisoners were sentenced to 12 months or less in a single year?
a)9580 b) 8950 c) 5890
18 How many constituencies are generating results on Friday?

19 What’s the largest constituency by registered voters?
Full SES Geek Round

20 In their submission to the Commons committee examining boundary changes, Charles Pattie and Ron Johnston said the 5% margin around electoral quotas was too limiting and posed a problem for the representation of
communities. Which margin did they say would work better?

a) 6 b) 8 c) 10
21 In their analysis of the ‘unfortunately ballot experiment’ in 2007, what did Chris Carman, James Mitchell and Rob Johns say was missing from the Glasgow ballots that might explain why there were so many rejected ballots?

a)Arrows b) instructions c) different colours
22 David Denver, Chris Carman and Rob Johns’s Elections and Voters in Britain says there are many reasons for studying elections. What’s the first one?
a)They allow you to bore friends with endless data
b)They allow you to entertain friends with exciting data
c)They’re fun
23 In their analysis of elections in the Oxford Handbook of Scottish Politics Ailsa Henderson and James Mitchell discuss rates of electoral malpractice. How many convictions for electoral fraud were there in Scotland for the 2016 Brexit referendum?
a)None b) 1 c) 3
24.The British Polling Council – led by John Curtice – conducted an investigation of industry errors following the 2015 UK General Election and made a number of recommendations.
Which was the first one it recommended take immediate effect?
a)Clarity on changes in methodology
b)Clarity on weighting
c)Clarity on confidence intervals
25 Slightly not serious question but interested in answers. The next Westminster boundary review. Are they going to accept the changes?
a) Yes, they'll accept them
b) Not quite. They'll sit on them
c) No they'll reject them
Also of interest to election quiz lovers from outwith Scotland @robfordmancs @drjennings @p_surridge @ProfJaneGreen @RWynJones @EdGarethPoole @WalesGovernance @roger_scully @justin_t_fisher @philipjcowley @PoliSciJack I know this list is incomplete!

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More from @ailsa_henderson

7 May
🧵And now, my attempt to convince you that Lothians has something for everyone.

1 You've got 3 of the seats represented by 3 different parties since 1999: Ed Southern, Central and Pentlands

Ed Southern stands out as its Westminster counterpart hosts Scotland's only Lab MP.
Ed Pentlands was the site of Con constituency recovery in 2003. After the Scottish map drained itself of blue from the top down, that reappearance emerged in the south and EdP (the Westminster seat was also Malcolm Rifkind's when he was SoS)
Ed Central's story is one of Scotland in miniature - Labour stronghold, giving way to the two poles on the constitutional debate.

All three are also 3-way marginals, more vulnerable to smaller changes in opinion.
Plus you've got interesting histories for Ed N&L, 2 Greens off
Read 5 tweets
7 May
🧵On where we are as a union (and the enduring challenge for Labour) - a quick look at S, W and Eng

1 General pattern in Scotland is that the SNP is doing well for a party in government so long, with unionist manouevres not quite managing to translate volatility into seat gains.
The party that is perceived to best stand up for Scotland (and this is an issue where they're streets ahead of competitors) is winning, if not making large gains.

2 In Wales, by contrast, Welsh Labour's soft nationalism is managing to ride the indy wave without losing
ground to Plaid. Indeed some fairly impressive Plaid to Lab swings in evidence.

3 In England - it's simplistic to see results (incl Hartlepool) as purely Leave/COVID related. This is a Conservative partly perceived to stand up for England and reveals the depth of
Read 5 tweets
6 May
Killing time waiting for @ScotVoting SES data to drop so here, unrequested, are my 10 #ScottishElections2021 things to watch for as the results roll in over the weekend

1 Turnout – polling figures (8,9,10/10 likely to vote) highly variable but some down on like-for-like polls
in 2016 suggesting turnout could dip below 50.

Last time, around ¾ of folks returned their postal votes. Interested to see what the highest ever request for postal ballots does to turnout.
2 Pollsters – everyone overestimated SNP support in 2016 (although some only by a very little) and everyone underestimated Con support. This is the Scottish incarnation of a UK-wide habit of overestimating Lab support in polls. It’s *possible* they’ve bucked the trend but ...
Read 13 tweets
5 Aug 20
How to sort #sqaresults debacle, an exasperated thread from someone teaching stats for the past 20 years @MrMcEnaney @LucyHunterB @DJohnsonMSP

First principles:
1 no detriment

2 student performance not that of cohort or socio-ec circs should be relevant

1/n
3 assume teachers are capable of professional judgement

4 if estimation errors, assume underestimation is more damaging to prospects

2/
Solutions:
1 whatever modelling produces, if lower than prelims, use prelim mark
2 model exam mark on basis of
a) student's perf across all subjects last 2 years
b) perf in same or similar subjects last 2 years
c) teacher estimated mark
d) available coursework marks

3/
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct 18
So @DrAmandaConroy 's tweet got me thinking about admin and teaching in Canada vs the UK so I give to you, a 4 tweet thread about the diffs between teaching in Canada and what you have to do in the UK (n=1, me)

If you inherit a course, here's what you have to do:
Assignments and marking?
After you've marked their stuff?
Read 6 tweets

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