Thread by @ailsa_henderson

Killing time waiting for @ScotVoting SES data to drop so here, unrequested, are my 10 #ScottishElections2021 things to watch for as the results roll in over the weekend

1 Turnout – polling figures (8,9,10/10 likely to vote) highly variable but some down on like-for-like polls

in 2016 suggesting turnout could dip below 50.

Last time, around ¾ of folks returned their postal votes. Interested to see what the highest ever request for postal ballots does to turnout.

2 Pollsters – everyone overestimated SNP support in 2016 (although some only by a very little) and everyone underestimated Con support. This is the Scottish incarnation of a UK-wide habit of overestimating Lab support in polls. It’s *possible* they’ve bucked the trend but ...

3 A 'resurgent' Labour is a destabilising force, especially in three way marginals. Having shed voters in successive elections, mostly to the SNP but some to the Cons, they’ll come home in uneven numbers in different constituencies.

Polling picking up strong % for Sarwar himself, Labour competence, where they're nipping at SNP heels on some issues & have unseated Cons as 2nd best on economic issues, plus they seem to be the preferred option of voters with itchy feet

NONE of that might translate into seats

4 Leadership – sometimes good ratings help a party (SNP), sometimes they don’t help much (Lab), sometimes bad numbers don’t hinder (Cons). Part of that is explained by the extent to which constitutional tribes are ‘locked’ onto parties, but always volatility in the No Remain camp

Ones to watch. I look out for 3 things: marginals, bellwethers and other interesting stories.

5 Most of the marginals are up on Friday (Dumbarton, Ayr, Ed C and Southern plus the 3 way Eastwood). Dumbarton voters no strangers to bucking national polling trends but ...

6 Bellwethers – both Renfrewshire N&W and Strathkelvin Bearsden are close to Scottish national voting patterns. Both also up on Friday.

7 Friday's interesting constituency: Glasgow Southern. Sturgeon will likely outperform her party vote again but I'll be keen to see how much Sarwar’s positive ratings make a difference. This is also Scotland’s most heterogeneous constituency by ethnicity.

8 Saturday’s interesting constituency: Glasgow Kelvin. I remember doing media stuff (if memory serves to an audience that included @BBCDouglasF and @ianswansonen) in 1999 and saying it’s all very fine rejoicing you have visible minority female candidates but if you put

them up to run against Donald Dewar in Anniesland then you’re not exactly helping their prospects are you? A long road to Holyrood for her, but the SNP’s @kaukabstewart should take this one and be Holyrood’s first Muslim female MSP.

9 and speaking of representation, we should see a better gender balance in this cohort, possibly north of 60. Some of this due to SNP putting up women in their seats with retiring incumbents (9 men and 7 women outgoing, 2 men and 14 women standing) and improved #s on lists

10 Don't forget Wales.
-Obvious comparison of Welsh Labour & Scottish Labour
-Interesting to see how increased % for indy transforms into Plaid seats (or not).
-Possible seats for the Abolish the Senedd party prove you can have a polarised electorate even without an indyref!