🧵And now, my attempt to convince you that Lothians has something for everyone.

1 You've got 3 of the seats represented by 3 different parties since 1999: Ed Southern, Central and Pentlands

Ed Southern stands out as its Westminster counterpart hosts Scotland's only Lab MP.
Ed Pentlands was the site of Con constituency recovery in 2003. After the Scottish map drained itself of blue from the top down, that reappearance emerged in the south and EdP (the Westminster seat was also Malcolm Rifkind's when he was SoS)
Ed Central's story is one of Scotland in miniature - Labour stronghold, giving way to the two poles on the constitutional debate.

All three are also 3-way marginals, more vulnerable to smaller changes in opinion.
Plus you've got interesting histories for Ed N&L, 2 Greens off
the list. Why am I telling you this?

1. Because this was ALWAYS a region with highly mobile & tactical voters. The Ed Western result is a confirmation of this - LD gains helped by collapse of the Lab and Con vote. See also Ian Murray's results in 2019.

2 There is no uniform
swing in this election- swings bouncing all over the place depending on local context, Leave vote, incumbency effects. The stability in aggregate results is revealing considerable individual-level churn. What we've seen so far in the Lothian constituencies reflects all of this

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More from @ailsa_henderson

7 May
🧵On where we are as a union (and the enduring challenge for Labour) - a quick look at S, W and Eng

1 General pattern in Scotland is that the SNP is doing well for a party in government so long, with unionist manouevres not quite managing to translate volatility into seat gains.
The party that is perceived to best stand up for Scotland (and this is an issue where they're streets ahead of competitors) is winning, if not making large gains.

2 In Wales, by contrast, Welsh Labour's soft nationalism is managing to ride the indy wave without losing
ground to Plaid. Indeed some fairly impressive Plaid to Lab swings in evidence.

3 In England - it's simplistic to see results (incl Hartlepool) as purely Leave/COVID related. This is a Conservative partly perceived to stand up for England and reveals the depth of
Read 5 tweets
6 May
Missing election night count? I bring to you a @ScotVoting Election Night Quiz @EdinburghPIR @merylkenny @AlanConvery @marcgeddes @ProfJMitchell @McEwen_Nicola @CCC_Research @PoliticalBibby @markdiffley1 @shephard_mark @HzBrandenburg

5 rounds, from The Basics to Full SES Geek
Winner gets bragging rights & chance to co-chair the Constituency Christmas Carol round if @EdinburghPIR are silly enough to let me run it again.

Answers posted Sat
@robjohns75 @cjcarman @chrishanretty @Jaclarner @frasmcm @niceonecombo @MalcH @ClarkAlistairJ
The Basics
1 Easy start. The 73 constituencies in 1999 were based on the then-72 Westminster seats in Scotland. Where did the 73rd constituency come from?

2 Which Scottish constituency has only ever been represented by people named Alasdair?
Read 23 tweets
6 May
Killing time waiting for @ScotVoting SES data to drop so here, unrequested, are my 10 #ScottishElections2021 things to watch for as the results roll in over the weekend

1 Turnout – polling figures (8,9,10/10 likely to vote) highly variable but some down on like-for-like polls
in 2016 suggesting turnout could dip below 50.

Last time, around ¾ of folks returned their postal votes. Interested to see what the highest ever request for postal ballots does to turnout.
2 Pollsters – everyone overestimated SNP support in 2016 (although some only by a very little) and everyone underestimated Con support. This is the Scottish incarnation of a UK-wide habit of overestimating Lab support in polls. It’s *possible* they’ve bucked the trend but ...
Read 13 tweets
5 Aug 20
How to sort #sqaresults debacle, an exasperated thread from someone teaching stats for the past 20 years @MrMcEnaney @LucyHunterB @DJohnsonMSP

First principles:
1 no detriment

2 student performance not that of cohort or socio-ec circs should be relevant

1/n
3 assume teachers are capable of professional judgement

4 if estimation errors, assume underestimation is more damaging to prospects

2/
Solutions:
1 whatever modelling produces, if lower than prelims, use prelim mark
2 model exam mark on basis of
a) student's perf across all subjects last 2 years
b) perf in same or similar subjects last 2 years
c) teacher estimated mark
d) available coursework marks

3/
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct 18
So @DrAmandaConroy 's tweet got me thinking about admin and teaching in Canada vs the UK so I give to you, a 4 tweet thread about the diffs between teaching in Canada and what you have to do in the UK (n=1, me)

If you inherit a course, here's what you have to do:
Assignments and marking?
After you've marked their stuff?
Read 6 tweets

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