The major indices are still in a bull-market (although ripe for a pullback).
The unwind is isolated to the hyper-growth stocks + SPACs which had appreciated significantly last year and become very over-extended.
Those names are now correcting prior excesses.
Late last year and in Jan/Feb, I kept saying that 400-500% gains in a year were NOT normal - normally stocks appreciate so much in 5 years (or more)!
So, ongoing sell-off is normal. So far ARK ETFs have given back ~35% of the entire gain, 50-62% retracement can't be ruled out.
Whenever an asset or market experiences gravity defying gains in a short period of time and that move ends with euphoria, 'this time is different' and price acceleration, the result is always the same - perfect bell curve and brutal decline/bust.
This is how bubbles form + pop.
Final thought -
Whenever over-extended stocks in one area start tanking after posting stellar operating results, that is a clear sign that the best has already been discounted.
Stocks top and bottom ahead of fundamentals (when best and worst have been discounted).
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Reviewed price charts of all asset bubbles going back decades. Amazing how they all look so similar -
Parabolic rise/blow off, initial decline, base building for a few weeks, then final leg down.
All formed perfect bell curves + selling only stopped with oversold readings.
The *minimum* decline I could find was 50% retracement of the entire rally and most gave back 65-75% of their entire gains.
Past doesn't guarantee the future, but human nature hasn't changed - interesting times!
Here is a chart (few months old) which shows how all the previous asset bubbles ended - Bell Curves.
The current bubble went up a bit further early this year but seems to have popped. Was aware it was an incipient bubble, just didn't realise it'd pop before end of QE.
The rise in the number of COVID variants, scepticism towards jabs and the unavailability of vaccines in the developing world suggest that the 'reopening' might not happen as fast as hoped.
At the very least, international travel isn't likely anytime soon.