Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️HUGE EXCESS DEATHS—global #COVID19 death toll is 2x higher than official data—6.9 mil worldwide. Deaths:

US 🇺🇸—905k
India 🇮🇳—654k
Mexico 🇲🇽—617k
Brazil 🇧🇷—595k
Russia 🇷🇺—593k

Likely hit 1918 Spanish flu death count by end of pandemic, says @IHME_UW. 🧵
statnews.com/2021/05/06/new…

2) That is about 38% higher than the current death estimate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 561,594.

➡️The new figure also surpasses the estimated number of U.S. deaths in 1918 flu pandemic, which was estimated to have killed approximately 675,000 Americans.

3) “We’re probably not yet at the global toll of Spanish flu and certainly not at the death rate from Spanish flu. But given what’s unfolding in India right now, Covid is going to rival Spanish flu at global level in terms of the count before we see the end of this epidemic”

4) “Most countries have underreported deaths, Murray said. In many cases, the under-estimates seem to be a result of health systems being overwhelmed, and of insufficient testing.”

5) “But in several cases it appears something else would have to account for the scale of the differences between the deaths countries are reporting and the excess mortality they have experienced during the pandemic, pointing to countries like Russia 🇷🇺 and Egypt 🇪🇬…”

6) “…where the estimated deaths, 170,000, are 13 times higher than the country’s official death toll, 13,529.”

7) “Murray’s group estimates that by September, the global death toll from Covid-19 will reach 9.4 million, with India at that point surpassing the United States as the country with the highest toll.”

8) “By September, the group’s models suggest that India’s Covid death toll will be 1.4 million people, and the U.S. toll will be 949,000.”

9) “The estimates are of deaths directly related to Covid, and do not include deaths that resulted from the pandemic’s disruption of health care — for example, people who did not seek care for heart attacks because they were afraid to go to Covid-swamped hospitals.”

10) Figure 5 shows a map of the predicted ratio of total COVID-19 deaths to reported COVID-19 deaths for March 2020 to April 2021.

healthdata.org/special-analys…

11) Figure 6 shows the adjusted daily deaths for the world once reported deaths are multiplied by these estimated ratios for each location & week. by May 3, 2021, the total number of COVID-19 deaths was 6.93 million, >2 times higher than reported number of deaths of 3.24 million.

12) Table 1 below shows the 20 countries with the highest number of total COVID-19 deaths by May 3, 2021.

13) Table 2. The 20 countries with the highest death rates due to COVID-19 (deaths per 100,000), March 2020 to May 2021

14) Figure 7 below shows the cumulative COVID-19 death rate up to May 3, 2021. While at the global level, the cumulative total COVID-19 death rate is 89.5 per 100,000, Vietnam 🇻🇳 has the lowest total COVID-19 death rate at 0.1 per 100,000.

15) maybe global COVID19 deaths didn’t have to be so large if we had airborne warnings earlier… just saying.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1390838729221316615