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G Raghuram Profile picture
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7 May, 4 tweets, 4 min read
#COVID19India: Summary View

Most states now have their latest TPR > 10% (contra WHO ref level of 5% and below). Average now risen to 19%+ on the higher side of the inner 1st-3rd quantile range from 14%-23%

TPR growth negative for CT, DL, JH, MH, MP and UP
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#COVID19India: Summary View

Weekly case growth > 40% for AP, AS, HP and JK and > 30% for GA, KA, OR, TN

*Negative for CT, DL, GJ, MH, MP, TG, UP

*Validate with Testing growth and lagged CFR rates
+
#COVID19India: Summary View

Testing growth for most < 10% at an average of 7% in the range 0-10%. Negative growth for AS, CH, GJ, JK, KA, TG.

AP testing high, but cases rising faster. JH stands out with a > 50% boost.
MH the only state with cases declining faster than tests.
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#COVID19India: Summary View

The full data table

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More from @UntergrundmannG

G Raghuram Profile picture
8 May
#COVID19India

This is something I observed at the first dose as well, at a fancy hospital for a paid appointment.

Out of three, there are two stages which take time, one of which could be eliminated, if the GoI wanted. More on that later.

Registration takes ...+
...between 5-15 minutes. Typically, there seems to be only one registration desk per centre. The injection takes less than 5 minutes. A 30 minute observation wait is mandated.

The numbers of *immediate* AEFIs following injection suggest an infinitesimally minuscule risk. +
But you wouldn't want to have the observation area unsupervised by a trained medical staff. So, it's possible to hold a mid-sized count of people safely at that stage.

Ideally, if I were to hold 10 at a go in the observation area for 30 minutes. I would need to get 10 ...+
Read 8 tweets
G Raghuram Profile picture
8 May
#COVID19India: Summary View

TPR > 40%: GA
TPR > 30%: DL,WB
TPR > 20%: CH,CT,HP,HR,KA,KL,MH,MP,RJ

TPR growth negative for CT, DL, MH, MP, UP
+ ImageImageImage
#COVID19India: Summary View

Weekly Case Growth
> 40%: AP,AS,HP,JK
> 30%: GA,OR,TN

*Negative for CT, DL,GJ,MH,MP,TG,UP

Average of 15% with a max of 52%

*Validate with testing growth/CFR
+ ImageImage
#COVID19India: Summary View

Average testing growth is a very low 3% against 16% for cases. AP, GA, HP, OR, PB and TN stand out with growth > 10%.

Negative for AS, BR, GJ, JH, KA, TG, UT. Marginally positive for JK, RJ

MH the only state with case decline > testing decline.
+ ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
G Raghuram Profile picture
6 May
#COVID19India: Summary View

Removed UT from the list due to testing data issues.

Latest TPR shifts higher to the range 5%-41% with most states in the band 13%-23% with an average of 19%

TPR growth very high for AS, HP, JK and KA. Negative for AP, CT, DL, MH, MP and UP
+ ImageImageImage
#COVID19India: Summary View

Case growth drops to a Doubling of 50D or more for a number of states - BR, CH, JH, RJ, TG - and is negative for CT, DL, GJ, MH, MP and UP

Continues to rise for the rest in the range 0.5%-54% with an average of 18%.

> 40% for AP, AS, HP and JK
+ ImageImage
#COVID19India: Summary View

AP maintains a standout testing growth. The others show relatively much lower test growth in the range 3%-16% with an average of 4% WoW.

Testing declines for AS, BR, GJ, JH, JK, KA, RJ and TG.
Case decline faster than tests decline for DL and MH.
+ ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
G Raghuram Profile picture
2 May
There are certain matters on which - for the survival (or a better future) of the collective - everyone (aka those whose survival is not threatened) contributes to or invests in. Education, Public Health, National Security are three well understood cases.

Those who ...+
... argue stupidly for "free markets" in these contexts haven't , quite clearly, thought through any of this and so end up betraying their immature understanding of how markets and societies generally function.

It can also be considered a form of insurance by/for those...+
...that have the most to lose (wealth, status, authority etc). There aren't too many of them - if you get the drift. So when things get bad, if it were everyone for himself, there's nothing preventing the larger # of threatened members of the society from banding together...+
Read 5 tweets
G Raghuram Profile picture
1 May
#COVID19India

I suffered brain damage late last night, having read the original pre-print. Read this simple explainer by @MenonBioPhysics instead.

The "model" is a bit like an astrologer's prediction. When the 'Mangal Muhurat' doesn't arrive, he says it's some Rahu-Ketu...
+
... and shifts his prediction and says something else. And when that fails as well, then he adds some other variable which has behaved unpredictably. You get the drift, if you're an Indian.

The problem though, is NOT that they're not epidemiologists. The issue is that ... +
... they're #clueless hacks who know one thing (in a bounded domain) possibly well. But cannot distinguish an extremely complex phenomenon, with fractal behavior/cascaded (or multi-scale) consequences and feedback loops, which is modelling-resistant.

It could be worse ... +
Read 4 tweets
G Raghuram Profile picture
1 May
#COVID19India

Quite frankly, I don't (and couldn't know). I've mucked around from simple to ensemble #ML models over the last year, only to realize that something this complex cannot be modelled or predicted.

However, you can pick up what's happening, currently, based...
+
... off the standard epidemiological metrics - changes in trends, TPR, testing rates, recoveries etc. And what that means in terms of the near and medium-term horizons.

The most sensible benchmark would be TPR declining or levelling off against testing rates that are rising...
+
... against/ahead of case growth rates. If the data is passably reliable, it's a good indicator that a peak is to be expected, followed by a decline.

This would also show in R[t] hitting 1.0 on a decline and continuing to go under. If testing is doubtful, TPR is rising ...
+
Read 5 tweets

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