Johnson's Tories win a historic by-election victory in Hartlepool, hoovering up pro-Brexit support 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It's a crushing victory for the Tories, picking up 15,529 votes compared to 8,589 for Labour. A new brick in the Tory wall 2/
This is the chart that hurt Labour. Much of the Brexit Party support of 2019 re-distributed to the Conservatives 3/
You'll also notice that the decline in support for Labour doesn't add up to the increase in support for the Tories. So it looks like lots of Labour voters just stayed home -- which is worrying for Starmer and his ability to energize the base 4/
Ultimately the sleaze allegations against the Tories of recent weeks didn't do the damage. Vaccine and Brexit positivity + promise of extra investment and jobs did the job for Johnson.. ends/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
This week I was in Hartlepool and here's what I learnt about British politics in a Brexit heartland 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Hartlepool is among the most deprived parts of the U.K, with the second-highest unemployment rate. Its manufacturing and steel industries fell away in the 70s and 80s, and the area declined badly 2/
The town voted overwhelmingly for Brexit (~70%), seen by many as a cry for change after years of neglect. And it’s that Brexit support which gives the Tories a very good chance of winning the seat, after half-a-century of Labour wins 3/
We're approaching 100 days of Brexit - so how have the so-called `Project Fear' predictions played out? Here's a breakdown 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
In 2016, the Treasury said the short-term impact of voting for Brexit and triggering Article 50 would cause an immediate recession, a plunge in house prices, a spike in unemployment and knock 3.6% off GDP within 2 years 2/ assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
This prediction was well overblown. Triggering Article 50 was delayed to March 2017, and GDP, employment levels and house prices had all improved 2 years on from the referendum 3/
EU leaders are meeting at a summit today to discuss a controversial proposal that would allow it to block vaccine exports from companies that haven't met their commitments to the bloc 2/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
There was a slight easing of diplomatic tensions with the UK earlier in the week, but discussions are ongoing on supplies and we wait for a resolution (it's a bit like the Brexit negotiations all over again...) 3/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Marshall says the disruption to trade and companies is not just about `adjustment'. These are permanent effects which, in some cases, pose an existential threat to business models 2/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Of the 40% decline in exports to the EU in January, he says a ``large chunk'' of that is Brexit related 3/
New: as U.K. exports to the EU fell 40% in January, British firms are angry that they're drowning in red tape -- while imports from the bloc are being waved in to Britain 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Steve Howell's Foodlynx sends British bacon and sausages to the EU. He's seen weeks-long delays to shipments and paid £thousands in extra customs fees since Brexit. He's outraged the government is postponing import checks on EU goods... 2/
`My reaction is absolute dismay,' Howell said. `I can’t believe they could be so stupid to kill U.K. exports, but allow free rein into our country from the EU' 3/