NFP:
-Strengthens Biden stimulus proposals
-Embarrasses those yelling about inflation
-Big increase in wages = more hiring
-"All models are wrong, but some are useful"
-BLS models are especially noisy
-NFP = overrated economic indicator
-"Nobody know anything"
-Strengthens Biden stimulus proposals
-Embarrasses those yelling about inflation
-Big increase in wages = more hiring
-"All models are wrong, but some are useful"
-BLS models are especially noisy
-NFP = overrated economic indicator
-"Nobody know anything"
I would add that assembling this data during lockdown/pandemic is exceedingly difficult. Lots of variables errors introduced into April.
May/June/July reports now hold potential for huge upside surprise
May/June/July reports now hold potential for huge upside surprise
We wildly overemphasize NFP - it has become more of a media spectacle and less of a market event over time
ritholtz.com/2011/02/nfp-ov…
ritholtz.com/2011/02/nfp-ov…
We have an incomplete understanding of the world around us, assume we know drivers of complex systems,
underestimate randomness + complexity, believe we are apart from the crowd.
These are consistent cognitive errors.
ritholtz.com/2016/01/154980/
underestimate randomness + complexity, believe we are apart from the crowd.
These are consistent cognitive errors.
ritholtz.com/2016/01/154980/
We also tend to overemphasize what just occurred over longer term trends.
Useful on the Savannah, useless in equity/bond markets
ritholtz.com/?s=recency+eff…
Useful on the Savannah, useless in equity/bond markets
ritholtz.com/?s=recency+eff…
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