Thread by @celiabelin

For the past few weeks, French politics have been colored in 50 shades of Right. A year ahead of the foretold presidential duel between Macron and Le Pen, France is already battling against some of the foulest aspects of nationalist politics. #FrenchFriday THREAD 1/

Squeezed between Macron’s LREM and Le Pen’s RN, Les Républicains (LR) are struggling to stake out their territory. With the regional elections approaching in June, negotiations are taking place at the local level to determine if and how to unite against the far right. 2/

LR Renaud Muselier, from the PACA region, negotiated a unity list with LREM, only to be rebuffed by his party and forced to renounce the idea. The pushback could lead LR to continue losing to LREM, although it is unclear which needs the other. 3/
lemonde.fr/politique/arti…

On Wed., Macron laid a wreath on the tomb of Napoleon, along with a careful discourse on the legacy of France’s emperor. A classic Macronesque articulation of “en meme temps”: symbolic pandering to the right + nuanced speech for the left. 4/
nytimes.com/2021/05/05/wor…

“Looking history in the eye” has become a signature Macron posture (cf. Algeria and Rwanda). But other not-so-subtle subliminal messages include that he would not let France’s history get “cancelled,” a frequent preoccupation in the media these days. 5/

And yet, the French president would rather be seen celebrating Napoleon than Socialist prez Mitterrand, whose 40th victory anniv is coming up on May 10. Choosing the putschist emperor over the towering and controversial Socialist is meaningful, though. 6/
lemonde.fr/politique/arti…

Putschist agitation already reaching worrying levels. On April 21, 20 retired generals published an open letter in Valeurs Actuelles, later endorsed by 1000+ military officials, calling to “defend patriotism” against the “disintegration” of the nation. 7/
valeursactuelles.com/politique/pour…

Beyond the delusional judgment on the state of France (they argued “hordes from the banlieues” and “antiracists” place the country in “mortal danger” that could end in “civil war” where the “dead will be in the thousands”), the letter is shocking in two ways: 8/

(a) these military officials announce that they “stand ready” to support policies that will “safeguard the nation,” suggesting that it would be acceptable for authorities to use military force in tense social situations, supporting an authoritarian turn to remedy “the chaos.” 9/

(b) Reminiscent of the darkest moments of French history, published on the 60th anniv of the coup of Algiers, the letter implies that the signatories could take matters into their own hands if they decide they can no longer remain “passive spectators” to what’s happening. 10/

More on this: France's generals have disgraced themselves @UnHerd 11/ unherd.com/thepost/france…

After its publication and outraged reactions from the political class, Le Pen was all too happy to express her support for the Generals' letter, along with a few others. A short-term strategy to denounce Macron, but also a risky "re-demonization", as @lofejoma calls it.12/

One week after the publication, a public opinion poll asserted that 58% of French supported the military signatories of the letter. Although shocking, the poll itself is also deceiving as only 38% of those polled knew exactly what the letter was. 13/
lci.fr/societe/tribun…

What’s more revealing in this poll is the deep worry of many French people around the issues of violence and perceived chaos and disintegration - legacy of the trauma of violent Yellow-Vests-vs-police interactions, as well as more than 30 terror attacks in the past 6 years. 14/

From a 2019 @j_jaures study, there is a sizeable part of French public opinion with anti-democratic tendencies. In 2019, 36% said that “there are systems that are at least as good as democracy”, with 86% of them hoping for “a strong leader”. 15/
jean-jaures.org/nos-production…

At a time of economic despair, lockdown isolation and anxiety about the future, Macron and his camp believe that they are accompanying an inescapable "rightism" (droitisation) of the electorate. They should tread lightly when it comes to playing on national(istic) sentiment [END]