The maximum constituency wins @theSNP can now achieve is 62.
So they’ll need 3 regional list seats for an overall majority (65).
BBC says that isn’t on. I’m less sure. (@WhatScotsThink is the BBC analyst, so I say it with trepidation). /1.
Either way, to be certain we’re going to have to wait for the regional list results.
If the @theSNP doesn’t get an overall majority there’ll almost certainly be a parliamentary majority for independence, as @scottishgreens will win a number of seats. /2.
The territorial integrity of the United Kingdom has never been less likely to survive. Since a century ago, when the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Ireland ended.
Northern Ireland’s been part defenestrated, by the UK’s choice to leave the EU customs union & single market. /3.
Supercharged by Brexit, the island of Great Britain has never been more likely to fracture politically since 1707, when the Union between Scotland & England was formed.
And England’s internal cohesion, taken for granted by almost everyone, shouldn’t be. /4.
Yes. The parliamentary election on 6 May returned a majority of MSPs from parties with it as a manifesto commitment. A prominent one (obviously).
Full stop.
But, if you want to play Vote Count Lotto, do it properly.
A 🧵. /1.
For that, you need to know what the Scottish electoral system is. And, if you do know, acknowledge its nature & implications.
So, a recap. Bear with me. /2.
It’s a form of proportional representation. Specifically, an “additional member” system. Somewhat over half the seats are voted for on a constituency basis (“first past the post” or plurality voting: whoever gets the most votes wins the seat). /3.
Most of England - politicians, media, public - has little idea of the extraordinary political event which has taken place in Scotland.
The same’s true of many Scottish unionists.
The Union’s closer to break up than any time in 314 years.
Ostriches won’t save it. What might?/1.
Because opinion on independence is approx. evenly split (itself a huge deal: around half of people in Scotland want to leave the UK!) relatively small shifts can tip the balance.
And, no doubt, everything will be tried to achieve that. /2.
But, what’s really made a difference to support for independence is England’s & Westminster’s descent into what’s perceived as chaotically unreliable, untrustworthy, incompetent & cruel governance. /3.
▪️These are national parliamentary elections. Not local.
▪️The most prominent issue in them has been whether one nation (Scotland) should hold a referendum on leaving union of nations (UK). /1.
▪️A parliamentary majority for an independence referendum will be just that. Given Scotland’s proportional voting system, that’s as good & constitutionally sound an expression of democratic will as you’ll find. (Note: in a Westminster system, the SNP would have 80%+ of MSPs). /2.
▪️Such a majority looks likely: SNP + Greens. We’ll find out later.
▪️It’s possible, but less likely, that the SNP will achieve a governing majority on its own: 65 or more MSPs out of 129. More likely: SNP just below that, & a governing majority in coalition with the Greens. /3.
The sister of a colleague is having trouble with the truth, liars, lies, lying & falsehoods. She doesn’t know what they are. She has over a million Twitter followers & a huge media profile.
I worry for my colleague. Her sister. And the UK. I thought I might try to help.
A🧵/1.
The @OED will, I hope, forgive me for the inevitable process of simplification I’m about to apply to their learned entries. But I’ll try to avoid recreating the farrago of nonsense we’ve been seeing on the subject of truth & lying.
Let’s start with the meaning of “true”. /2.
This is quite easy really. For those not easily distracted by inverted pyramids of piffle.
The biggest challenge raised by the analysis in the article is the apparent complete lack of willingness of the Putin-Russian power elite to engage in hoped for manner. It would surely be to the benefit of Russia if it did. /2.
And, as the article convincingly sets out, there’s no (good) alternative for Russia. But it would be disastrous to Putin & his power grouping. Or, at least, they couldn’t have any confidence that it wouldn’t be. /3.
It’s a perilous moment in the internal & external development of Russia.
Few understand Russia & Germany better than Ernst-Jörg von Studnitz (below with Mikhail Gorbachev).
In a recent article he says Nordstream 2 & old thinking must go. A 🧵/1.
Published originally in German (below) in the Redoute Papers series, Ambassador von Studnitz’s article is presented in English, in this short🧵. Each page accompanied by a one-tweet summary/ commentary by me. It carries sharp messages for German & other western policy-makers. /2.
Drawing on deep historical understanding & over half a century’s experience dealing with Russia, including as German ambassador in Moscow 1995 - 2002, Dr von Studnitz examines the Germany-Russia context facing a new Chancellor in Berlin this September. Old approaches are out. /3.