Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

Most of England - politicians, media, public - has little idea of the extraordinary political event which has taken place in Scotland.

The same’s true of many Scottish unionists.

The Union’s closer to break up than any time in 314 years.

Ostriches won’t save it. What might?/1.

Because opinion on independence is approx. evenly split (itself a huge deal: around half of people in Scotland want to leave the UK!) relatively small shifts can tip the balance.

And, no doubt, everything will be tried to achieve that. /2.

But, what’s really made a difference to support for independence is England’s & Westminster’s descent into what’s perceived as chaotically unreliable, untrustworthy, incompetent & cruel governance. /3.

Brexit, especially the form & process chosen, plus an impression of carelessness on the part of HM Govt over tens of thousands of peoples’ lives, unnecessarily lost to Covid-19, have sharpened that view. /4.

You can delay a referendum.

You can try to buy people off.

You can attempt to frighten people.

You can pump out every conceivable hit job on your opponents, through an easily exploitable media & social media landscape.

You might have some success. /5.

But, unless there’s a radical reversal of England’s current political & geopolitical trajectory, you’ll never get a settled majority - say, 70% - in Scotland for staying in the UK. The independence question will always be there. /6.

In fact, if things carry on as they have been, you’ll get just such a majority in the other direction.

In short: unless English & Westminster politics are seen by people in Scotland reliably to be on a sane & decent path, the Union’s over. It’ll happen faster than you think. /7.

If you claim to care about the Union, don’t pretend you weren’t warned.

Fix England & Westminster.

Or else.

If you’re for independence: prepare. /8. End