In political life, there is inevitably a difference between what people are able to say publicly and think privately. As I haven’t been involved in frontline @UKLabour politics for many years, I am happy to say publicly what many moderates will be thinking to themselves. 1/16
2/16 Starmer is a decent enough guy. Bright, well meaning, broadly on the right side of most major political debates. But we know in our water we’re probably not looking at a Prime Minister. Something is missing. Perhaps an intangible quality.
3/16 Miliband and Kinnock were decent, intelligent men who lacked a certain something too. There’s a pattern here that @UKLabour probably needs to address.
4/16 The parallel with Kinnock is of course very stark for those with long memories. He had to battle the hard left too. Indeed many of the very same characters - Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Lansman etc.
5/16 Starmer is not a Blair figure unfortunately. But could he be a Kinnock figure? Possibly yes. But he needs to show more tenacity and actually take the fight to the renegade leftists who snipe and seek to undermine him.
6/16 Kinnock had real cojones when - in the mid 1980s - he faced down the Trotskyists of Militant in his famous conference speech. Degsy Hatton was left heckling from the back, as Eric Heffer exited in a strop.
7/16 Now is the time for Starmer to confront @PeoplesMomentum and the electorally poisonous agenda they advocate. Membership should become incompatible with @UKLabour membership.
8/16 Of course, Labour’s woes go way beyond the so-called ‘Long Corbyn’ issue. But this is just a hygiene factor. The party simply cannot and will not win back people who vote Tory as long as these extremists are still kicking around.
9/16 Starmer needs to be bold with his reshuffle and bring in people with real gravitas and presence. That means Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn. And I wouldn’t rule out a more formal role for a winner such as Blair or Mandelson.
10/16 The left seems to think the key to winning back Northern heartlands is socialist radicalism. That people will stop voting Tory when they see the alternative is more authentically left wing. Starmer knows this to be nonsense and must repudiate it publicly.
11/16 Some hard choices are needed over Brexit. I supported Remain and believe the decision to leave the EU was mistaken. But it’s happened. And there needs to be a much more open acceptance from former Remainers that the debate is closed.
12/16 Starmer has been very trapped by the pandemic. His instinct was to be supportive to the government, but the sheer incompetence and the mounting death toll in 2020 put this position under real pressure. So he started sniping.
13/16 It’s absolutely clear that as we moved into 2021 and the government demonstrated a much greater degree of control over the pandemic, the sniping had to stop. It didn’t. And it has landed badly with the public.
14/16 The sleaze allegations against the Tories are serious. But they are not going to turn the dial against a government helping to release people from a year of lockdown and offering some hope of a more normal future.
15/16 My advice: stop saying people don’t want to go back to normal and the way things were. They mostly do. Stop criticising the government over Covid and work *with* them. Paint a positive vision of the UK rather than carp on about decoration at Downing Street.
16/16 If Starmer can get some of these things right in the period ahead, I think it’s still possible he can be the Kinnock figure. Restoring @UKLabour’s credibility as a contender. And paving the way for a successor who can win later in the twenties.
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With all the debate and angst within @UKLabour and the calls from Corbynite MPs for shift back to the left, it's worth taking a little magical history tour. Let's go back exactly 40 years - to the Labour victory in the Greater London Council elections of 7 May 1981... 1/18
2/18 While many will recall that this was the start of Ken Livingstone's notorious leftist administration at County Hall, what is less well remembered is that the campaign was fought by a moderate leader - Andrew McIntosh. He was toppled the next day by the hard left.
3/18 The 'palace coup' in the GLC Labour Group ensured that Livingstone became leader and a coterie of other left-wingers (John McDonnell, Paul Boateng, Valerie Wise, Dave Wetzel and others) were set to become influential committee chairs.
Ok, I know I'm going to stir up some controversy here and probably should live the quite life, but here goes. I think that when we come to write the history of the Covid pandemic, many of the trite assumptions of the first six, eight, ten months may prove to be myths. 1/15
2/15 We heard a lot about Germany and South Korea, for instance. If only we'd followed their example, we'd have done so much better. Today, ICU beds in Seoul are near capacity. Lockdown looms for the first time. edition.cnn.com/2020/12/16/asi…
3/15 The German response has been hampered by the country's federal political structure - laissez-faire Länder resisting more stringent lockdown measures proposed by Merkel's government. Now, hundreds of deaths a day. theguardian.com/world/2020/dec…
Some thoughts on the debate over the UK Xmas rona regulations. First of all, public opinion is ostensibly against relaxation, which gives the government some wriggle room. 57% say the tier system should remain in place over the festive period. Interesting. 1/8
2/8 I suspect this is the politically correct answer to pollsters and that a proportion of people who oppose the non-disty Christy *would* meet up with people outside their bubble if the government continues to say that it is ok. But they kind of hope they'll be *told* it's not.
3/8 Here's the thing. These decisions are actually very difficult. My father is 84, has advanced Parkinson's. My father-in-law is 88, profoundly deaf, and on his own. I don't want them put at risk, but I don't want them isolated at Christmas.
It's important to keep watching the Trump presidential campaign and the deranged incumbent's pronouncements. In his Twitter feed, there is an ever-increasing emphasis on the fact that any election result cannot be trusted and that the result may never be clear. 1/7
2/7 I think the calculation in the Trump camp is that the election is already lost because of Covid and the economic slump. They must have a lot of private polling from the swing states suggesting that scraping a win in the electoral college is now a real long shot.
3/7 They'll throw all they can at Biden. He's Sleepy Joe, who's never let out of the basement. He's in the grip of the hard left. Harris is the real power behind the throne. And a vote for the Democrats is a vote for Antifa and anarchy. But they know it won't be enough.
I think the decision to abruptly reverse the air corridor to Spain will be another turning point for trust in the government. It seems strange to draw a parallel with Dominic Cummings, but at a psychological level, these issues are related. 1/10
2/10 Behavioural scientists talked about the issue of equity at the time of the Barnard Castle affair. We obey the rules because we believe - perhaps naively - that they apply equally to everyone. When it's clear they don't, we feel anger and resentment. Trust has broken down.
3/10 A slightly different thing is happening with the quarantine rules, but it's clearly connected. People flew out to Spain having been told they *wouldn't* have to self-isolate on return. They are now being told that the goalposts have shifted and will resent it.
Parallels with the 1980s are always front of mind with @UKLabour's predicament. When Kinnock took over in 1983, he had broad support from sections of the left, but he soon ran into conflict with the hardliners. The media labelled them as the 'loony left'. 1/20
2/20 This notorious faction had a strong foothold in local government - particularly in London (Ken Livingstone's GLC, Ted Knight's Lambeth etc) - and pursued policies that would be instantly familiar to young Corbynistas now.
3/20 The formula was opposition to all cuts (the word for austerity in the 80s) to the point of defying the law; opposition to nuclear weapons; support for liberation struggles; for leftist regimes around the world; an obsession with Ireland, Palestine and socialist Nicaragua.