On why there is no light at the end of India's vaccine tunnel. 1. The affidavit filed by the Centre in the SC today states (h/t livelaw.com)
The Centre says that the current total monthly capacities of the three current vaccine suppliers is 85.03 m doses.
2. What does this imply for the ongoing vaccination drive?
Breaking capacities down to total daily doses enables enables comparison with what we need and where we stand. Daily capacities (million doses):
SII - 2.17 m
BBIL - 0.67 m
Sputnik - 0.01 m
Total - 2.85 m
3. Compare this to the vaccination rates in early April when the 7-day moving avg peaked at about 3.7 m doses per day. The shortfall NOW is about 25 %.
4. Today’s affidavit states that capacities are due to expand by JULY 2021 as follows. To cut through the bluster, let us talk million daily doses:
SII - 2.33-3.33 m/day
BBIL - 1.83 m/day
Sputnik - 0.4 m/day
Total - 4.56-5.56 m/day
5. There has been great variability in what companies have been claiming abt capacities and what is coming out of their factories. Given this, and given the NaMo Govt’s failure to articulate clearly makes even these capacities suspect.
6. Both BBIL and SII have been claiming capacities far above what has been hitherto reported., But reality is catching up!
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THREAD 1. Here is an example of an external agency providing damage limitation services to the NaMo regime, which is struggling to explain its disastrous vaccination policy. orfonline.org/expert-speak/n…
2. Essentially, it ticks all the right boxes by extolling the virtues of the “largest” vaccination drive without neither respect for facts on the ground nor for the scale of the task at the hand of the Govt.
3. Instead, it asks that public “expectations” of a quick and comprehensive rollout should be “managed” and “toned down”. Now, that sounds sinister, doesn’t it? Basically, it says universal rollout of the vaccine is off the table.
India's Vaccine Baron Adar Poonawala says SII's capacity will
⬆️ from 60-70 m/month to 100 m/month (3m/day) by July. India needs at least 7m/day to cover 18+ popn within 2021. This wide gap is what gives the monopoly scope for hiking prices. ft.com/content/017846…
Poonawala, shifty as always, now takes the risky route of blaming the NaMo Govt for taking "it easy" and for being being complacent. "There were no orders," he reveals and says that SII was not expected to produce more than 1 billion doses/yr. Clearly this fiasco is a JV.
Poonawala says the NaMo Govt only ordered for 21 m doses for delivery by Feb (about 7-10 days supply at current vaccination rates!). The next order, for 110m only came in March, when the wave was on the. verge of taking off.
THREAD - On the dangerous Indian free market approach to vaccination 1. This is about the wishful fantasies of free market warriors about vaccines, who welcome SSI’s decision on a three-tier price structure - 150/dose for Centre, 400 for states and 600 for pet hospitals.
2. First and foremost, this is by no means a “free market” for vaccines. There is heavy intervention by way at every stage, including in development of the vaccine, its distribution and lastly in terms of orders placed, which made production possible in the first place.
3. IOWs SSI or BB cannot by any means plug the familiar claim that they have developed and therefore need to be compensated. More imp, the vaccine is unlike any other “good” - it is a matter of life and death for all, irrespective of the purchasing power of the “consumer”.
THREAD On the latest announcement on vaccines - 1. A disastrous course that will deter adoption, increase hesitancy and drive prices out of the reach of beleaguered states and people who need it most. All in the name of being market friendly
2. Did you notice the main ploy in the Phase 3 is that half the supplies will be based on market prices, delivered to state governments? The Centre will get the other half of the supplies at the fixed rate contract, leaving the other half for private profit gouging.
3. This will significantly depress vaccine adoption, especially among the high-risk groups. This also worsens India's vaccine problem by adding another dimension.
This petition by entities @thewire_in@thenewsminute among others only confirmed my suspicion that the indian legacy media would never fight to stay relevant in the digital realm that is free from Govt control. livelaw.in/top-stories/th…
Its grudging challenge to the draconian IT Rules reveals the truth that it'd be more interested in desperately defending its turf rather than seek embrace the digital realm. This which requires it to abandon its existing business model in favour of something that is democratic.
Seeking subscribers (paid) while retaining its ad-driven model is a hare-brained idea for legacy media. When will they ever learn that the two - ad-driven vs subscriber-based - are incompatible and require a fundamental repositioning.
Thread:
Once upon a time auto companies (among others) used to hire workers as trainees, and keep them as trainees for prolonged periods in order to avoid paying them proper wages and statutory benefits. Now media companies, among them industry leaders do the same.
Since the pandemic several leading media companies, after having sacked journos and imposed wage cuts, have found been innovative in finding new ways to further cut the wage bill. The trick is to engage new journos and take them as "trainees".
The trick is to extend and prolong the trainee's "contract" so that the media companies - many of them the venerable ones from another era - can shortchange these young journos during the pandemic.