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Sridhar V

11 May, 10 tweets, 2 min read

THREAD
1. Here is an example of an external agency providing damage limitation services to the NaMo regime, which is struggling to explain its disastrous vaccination policy.
orfonline.org/expert-speak/n…

2. Essentially, it ticks all the right boxes by extolling the virtues of the “largest” vaccination drive without neither respect for facts on the ground nor for the scale of the task at the hand of the Govt.

3. Instead, it asks that public “expectations” of a quick and comprehensive rollout should be “managed” and “toned down”. Now, that sounds sinister, doesn’t it? Basically, it says universal rollout of the vaccine is off the table.

4. The Centre’s affidavit y’day shows that all orders placed by the Centre for Jan-April is about 311 m doses. Of this a little over 170 million doses have already been delivered - leaving just 141 m doses till July. At current rates it will be enough for 56 days till July 31.

5. Talking of vaccines in “inventory” or “pipeline” is just diversion. Vaccines will not come from thin air. The author’s 333 m dose availability till July appears to reflect a significant extent of double counting.

6. Both SII ad BBIL are now supplying only to Centre, as part of their commitment to supply a total of 160 m doses till July. The 110 m that the author expects to be supplied to States and private channels is not ADDITIONAL to this.

7. In fact Poonawala has said that direct supplies to states and private channels will start only after these 160 m doses are delivered to the Centre. Instead, the Centre continues to supply both these channels.

8. The author mentions 3.7 m doses/day capacity by July 2021. In fact, the Centre says its capacity now is 2.84 m doses/day and that in July it will be expanded. How much materialises is open to question.

9. This is especially because the Centre has not yet placed fresh orders nor has it revealed how much it is going to buy. Perhaps it is betting on the burden is transferred to the States. All in all, the scale of the fiasco and bungling worsens by the day.
END

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Sridhar V

@sritara

12 May

@AnilKSood5

THREAD
1. On Serum Institute of India, which is among the highest profit margins in India, among companies with a turnover of over Rs. 5,000 crores (h/t @AnilKSood5 )
SII’s operating margin (operating profit/turnover) has NEVER fallen below 50 per cent ever since fiscal 2012!

2. SII is not a very large company - its total sales (2020) was just a little less than Rs. 6,000 crores. In comparison Tata Steel’s turnover was 1.4 lakh crores! But what is striking is its strike rate — its profit/turnover ratio.

3. In fact its average net profit margin (net profit/turnover) in the last decade has been about 44 %. Now, having enjoyed that kind of normal profit, one can sympathise with Poonawala when says he would like to make super profits!

Read 5 tweets

Sridhar V

@sritara

10 May

THREAD

On why there is no light at the end of India's vaccine tunnel.
1. The affidavit filed by the Centre in the SC today states (h/t livelaw.com)
The Centre says that the current total monthly capacities of the three current vaccine suppliers is 85.03 m doses.

2. What does this imply for the ongoing vaccination drive?
Breaking capacities down to total daily doses enables enables comparison with what we need and where we stand. Daily capacities (million doses):
SII - 2.17 m
BBIL - 0.67 m
Sputnik - 0.01 m
Total - 2.85 m

3. Compare this to the vaccination rates in early April when the 7-day moving avg peaked at about 3.7 m doses per day. The shortfall NOW is about 25 %.

Read 9 tweets

Sridhar V

@sritara

2 May

India's Vaccine Baron Adar Poonawala says SII's capacity will
⬆️ from 60-70 m/month to 100 m/month (3m/day) by July. India needs at least 7m/day to cover 18+ popn within 2021. This wide gap is what gives the monopoly scope for hiking prices. ft.com/content/017846…

Poonawala, shifty as always, now takes the risky route of blaming the NaMo Govt for taking "it easy" and for being being complacent. "There were no orders," he reveals and says that SII was not expected to produce more than 1 billion doses/yr. Clearly this fiasco is a JV.

Poonawala says the NaMo Govt only ordered for 21 m doses for delivery by Feb (about 7-10 days supply at current vaccination rates!). The next order, for 110m only came in March, when the wave was on the. verge of taking off.

Read 5 tweets

Sridhar V

@sritara

21 Apr

THREAD - On the dangerous Indian free market approach to vaccination
1. This is about the wishful fantasies of free market warriors about vaccines, who welcome SSI’s decision on a three-tier price structure - 150/dose for Centre, 400 for states and 600 for pet hospitals.

2. First and foremost, this is by no means a “free market” for vaccines. There is heavy intervention by way at every stage, including in development of the vaccine, its distribution and lastly in terms of orders placed, which made production possible in the first place.

3. IOWs SSI or BB cannot by any means plug the familiar claim that they have developed and therefore need to be compensated. More imp, the vaccine is unlike any other “good” - it is a matter of life and death for all, irrespective of the purchasing power of the “consumer”.

Read 18 tweets

Sridhar V

@sritara

19 Apr

THREAD On the latest announcement on vaccines - 1. A disastrous course that will deter adoption, increase hesitancy and drive prices out of the reach of beleaguered states and people who need it most. All in the name of being market friendly

2. Did you notice the main ploy in the Phase 3 is that half the supplies will be based on market prices, delivered to state governments? The Centre will get the other half of the supplies at the fixed rate contract, leaving the other half for private profit gouging.

3. This will significantly depress vaccine adoption, especially among the high-risk groups. This also worsens India's vaccine problem by adding another dimension.

Read 11 tweets

Sridhar V

@sritara

9 Mar

@thewire_in

This petition by entities @thewire_in @thenewsminute among others only confirmed my suspicion that the indian legacy media would never fight to stay relevant in the digital realm that is free from Govt control. livelaw.in/top-stories/th…

Its grudging challenge to the draconian IT Rules reveals the truth that it'd be more interested in desperately defending its turf rather than seek embrace the digital realm. This which requires it to abandon its existing business model in favour of something that is democratic.

Seeking subscribers (paid) while retaining its ad-driven model is a hare-brained idea for legacy media. When will they ever learn that the two - ad-driven vs subscriber-based - are incompatible and require a fundamental repositioning.

Read 5 tweets

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