If GoP decides to dig the largest hole in the world without purpose that too will contribute to GDP growth. lt’ll need excavators, big trucks, explosives, and create many jobs whilst digging. However, on completion if the giant hole generates not much to sell, it’ll soon fill up
The hole & all the activity around digging it will soon enough get forgotten, but the interest on the loan & principle itself the government borrowed, domestically & internationally (FX to buy specialised equipment) will still have to paid back. The jobs would have disappeared
Few will remember the hole but all will’ve to pay for many years to come. While digging it the government would have been able to boast about how GDP growth had gone up during its tenure, but future government’s growth will be restricted by the loans they have to pay for the hole
So whether its 2% or 6% GDP growth may make us feel nice about ourselves, and may even help governments win elections, but it’s always worth remembering how that growth is achieved and for what purpose. And most importantly who’ll gain when and who’ll pay for it for how long

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More from @javedhassan

8 May
While it’s too early to take comfort the numbers suggest that @OfficialNcoc can be credited for having so far prevented an exponential surge in covid-19 cases. While one must thank Allah for His mercy, the stark difference btw S Asian countries reflects impact of policy actions Image
It’s best to use cases per million as that equalises the differences in population size of countries. Also that’s observable both in the log and linear scales Image
It’s important to compare the positivity ratios across countries to get an idea of if the differences are because of lack of sufficient testing. A higher positivity ratio tends to indicate insufficient testing. Also rapidly increasing positivity is precursor of increase in cases Image
Read 6 tweets
23 Mar
It has to be said PMNL/Sharifs are masters of narrative building. PTI simply can’t compete. The cuckoo IPP contracts were not a product of incompetence, but a well thought out strategy to befuddled the Pakistani people by razzle-dazzle that they’ll pay thru their noses for years
PMLN knew exactly what they were doing when the kept PKR overvalued by borrowing USD to support the currency. It suppressed inflation & kept interest rates artificially low. Moreover, it fuelled consumer driven growth, which gives them boasting rights that it now shoves down our
throats - little matter that it decimated exports & exploded trade deficit. Although they knew that collapse was inevitable as such consumption driven growth, fuelled by excessive levels of borrowing is never sustainable. The pièce de résistance of this was dubious IPP enterprise
Read 7 tweets
20 Jan
UK High Court Hon Mrs Justice Moulder’s #Broadsheet 2018 judgment leaves no doubt that at least $100mn of Sharifs assets were of unexplained origin. Had they been legally acquired & declared to tax authorities as claimed by a lawyer, no UK court would treat them as RECOVERABLE
The Honourable judge arrives at her conclusion with respect to value of recoverable assets on the basis of “....the potential net recovery by respondents (Broadsheet) after taking account of all relevant factors”
On the issue why the Pakistan High Commission made the payment of $28.706 million (Rs4.59 billion) on behalf of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) once UK court had made the decree award to broadsheet, GOP assets could be attached/seized immediately to enforce the order
Read 4 tweets
19 Dec 20
Every partisan can have his view who won the debate, but the following facts are indisputable:
- No previous govt has willingly come forward to have a threadbare debate with the opposition in open forum on a burning issue of the day
- Only PTI govt has made inquiry reports public
- All facts and figures are made available for complete scrutiny so that public can arrive at their own judgement
- Only in this govt every contract and every additional loan is minutely examined, and govt ministers willing to respond rather than obfuscate
- Level of public interest/scrutiny economic issues means there’s almost real time assessment taking place of govt decision unlike, for example, in the signing of 20yr IPP or 15yr LNG contracts that happened virtually in the dark
Read 5 tweets
30 Oct 20
The government would do itself a favour by explaining to the people that food commodity prices are driven by international prices. They’ve  moved up by as much 25-50% for the different food commodities in the last few months.
Today international wheat price is ranges between rs2100-2300 per maund whereas the support price paid to local wheat prices is 1350 per maund. Why should local farmers sell at 20-30% lower prices than what he can get by selling across the border in Afghanistan.
Even if he does so, the middle man will buy up the stock and smuggle it across. There’s no point moralising about farmers receiving subsidies and that they should sell at a lower rate than what they get elsewhere. Even if they comply other intermediaries won’t.
Read 10 tweets
18 Sep 20
For a bunch of inexperienced incompetents, the present govt has only managed to:

- Stabilise economy

- Avert BoP crises/default due to PMLN policies

- Renegotiate obscene IPPs contracts by previous govts

- Reverse Karke $1bn penalty

- Stay $6bn penalty award on RikoDiq
...
- Controlled Covid19 crises such Pakistan is an exemplar nation as per WHO. Also kept fatalities lower than most similar populated countries & managed to minimise damage to the economy

- Implemented necessary AML measure and enacted FATF laws necessary to come out of grey list..
- post Covid19 Pak Exports have contracted much less than competing EM countries (eg India)

- Revival in FDI, which is 40% up YoY in first 2 months of current Fiscal Year

- Completely negate Modi’s much trumpeted goal of isolating Pakistan. Playing major role in Afghan peace..
Read 5 tweets

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