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11 May, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Polled issue opinions are associated with ballot initiative outcomes but popular policies underperform; voters systematically prefer the "no" option
#polisciresearch
dropbox.com/s/zn2uf6kyv8id…
Great generalization of the research on how Washington's real-world campaigns reduced support for climate initiatives by 20 percentage points:

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
CW among consultants is that an initiative should start with 2/3 support in the polls to pass (with 50%), usually explained not just as status quo bias but responsiveness to negative information; eg, con spending on initiatives is more important than pro:
amazon.com/Populist-Parad…
But this does seem a bit different, as a few initiatives with close to 50/50 poll support end up OK. So this could be more indicative of a campaign polarizing effect vs. campaigns uniformly increasing the no vote:

Would like to see more on $ & salience

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More from @MattGrossmann

Matt Grossmann Profile picture
12 May
Long way to go, but more traditional NSF funding & DOE national lab funding have successfully attached themselves as solutions to today’s focus problem of Chinese technology competition; also, the distributed locations of national labs & grant-seeking universities still matter
Compared to other issue areas, significant science & tech policy changes involve more leadership from administrative agencies; but the policymaking network is sparsely connected with no core; there has long been high international but low public influence
amazon.com/Artists-Possib…
There is now a good chance that we'll more than double traditional NSF directorate funding (while creating a new directorate & funding national labs) under the guise of an anti-China technology competition bill

Senate bill now more closely tracks the House bill, but with more $
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
10 May
Democrats lost vote share among Latinos, from 71-29% in 2016 to 63-37% in two-way, but gained among white voters with a college degree, from 50-50 to 54-46% in 2020

New Catalyst estimates:

catalist.us/wh-national/
Turnout was up substantially in 2020, especially among younger voters

New Catalist estimates:
catalist.us/wh-national/
The density divide remained strong in 2020, but Biden lost ground in urban areas & gained in rural & suburban areas vs 2016

New Catalist estimates:

catalist.us/wh-national/
Read 8 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
2 May
The run-for-President successful Republican agenda is apparently:
- restrict mail voting
- fine social media for bans
- riot / protest restriction
- ban vaccine passports
- ban transgender in girls sports
- spend the federal stimulus
miamiherald.com/news/politics-…
Noem is pursuing a similar focus on symbolic cultural politics & appeals to conservative media:
nytimes.com/2021/05/02/us/…

In Red State Blues, I find that Republican control of states polarized cultural politics but didn’t shift state economic policy much:
amazon.com/Red-State-Blue…
Meanwhile, Democratic state governments are continuing to move leftward on economic & cultural issues, though without reinvention:
seattletimes.com/seattle-news/p…
Federal $ means size & scope of gov will continue growing across Dem & Rep states, continuing long patterns I found
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
7 Apr
Biden’s reconciliation-driven spend without strings or reform policy agenda seems to reverse Obama-era technocratic trends in Democratic policymaking, with a return to old Dem pol constituency distribution objectives. But it also reflects updated & diversifying academic advice
Economists have largely changed their balance of concerns on deficit spending & on cash benefits. Biden is also relying on more diverse & sociologically-inspired academic advice, visible in defining infrastructure to include social care & greater attention to racial equity.
Points 3 & 4 in @ezraklein's column are similar, but he emphasizes economics losing credibility & change in public mood:
nytimes.com/2021/04/08/opi…
Point #2 about the new generation of staffers also applies to the academic help: more diverse, liberal, & less tied to traditional econ
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
18 Mar
Infrastructure plan is likely to substantially raise both high-income individual taxes & the corporate tax rate. Biden’s 2nd most likely major agenda item is going to be more difficult to pass & not primarily due to the filibuster
axios.com/corporate-tax-…
Business opposition & high-income voter opposition are both associated with difficulty enacting proposals, even if they are supported by the public as a whole. Democratic leaders are not aligned with business, but business still has the power to block most change
It is also the norm for intra-party disagreement to stop many major party priorities from becoming law:


Much discussion of bills with near zero chance of passage, but even the next most likely bill to pass (infrastructure, after COVID) faces big obstacles
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
2 Mar
Republicans are more optimistic about (relative & absolute) social mobility, but no less accurate. Democrats (public & officials) understate social mobility. Dems think mobility is constrained by race & parent wealth; Reps think it’s hard work.
dartmouth.edu/~nyhan/mobilit…
In estimating chance of making it from the bottom quintile in childhood to the top quintile in adulthood, the public is more optimistic than policymakers. In predicting children’s chance of making more $ than their parents, Republican officials are the most optimistic Image
Partisans (in the public & among officials) divide on factors that matter for social mobility. Everyone thinks education is important. Republicans are more likely to cite hard work & not having kids until marriage; Democrats are more likely to cite race & parent wealth Image
Read 4 tweets

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