1/n I was going to write a review myself, because this paper was hilarious, specially the twist at the end. @MIT_CSAIL discovers through observations that there is something called "Scientific Method". But the thread by @commieleejones is just gold. He deserves a follow.
2/n But I think there is never a waste of a good thread. So I encourage the authors @crystaljjlee, @arvindsatya1 et al. To research a little bit about the THE SCIENCE because well, its kinda lacking.
3/n It doesn't require much to someone that has been working in data for a living for 10+ years to figure out when something like this happens, there is something afoul going on.
4/n But, well that is a single study right? There are many others, the oldest I could find was from Williams wells in the 50s (yeah the guy that proved airborne transmission of pathogens). Yeah, that old.
5/n Or who know maybe people that had designed DNA cutting and nebulization equipment that revolutionized the entire genetics fields tells you the science actually SUCKS (and big time).
6/n Last but not least, this paper also highlight why I decided to leave academia even before starting in it. Free thinking is not encouraged and in most places if you step too far it means ostracizing yourself.
7/n The conclusion is just another example, what would everybody think if we say: "Hey, these guys may be onto something. SACRILEGE!!!".

@crystaljjlee, @arvindsatya1 you are invited to 'investigate' us, you just need to ask. For once, you may learn something interesting.

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More from @federicolois

5 May
@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 1/n That shouldn't be too difficult. Take a 50% seroprevalence location (my hometown serves quite well), spike based randomized serostudy done less than a month ago. Know the population, 125K inhabitants, 15% percent >60yo. 3 deaths over the entire pandemic below 40yo.
@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 2/n Therefore, that is 60K (rounding down) infected people, and given our population structure we know that at least 30K of those had been below 40yo. Right? So from 30K infections you got 4 deaths.
@GidMK @WesPegden @pafournier @AlastairMcA30 @sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH 3/n But we can do even better. You know I kinda know the person in charge there (did I mention is my hometown?). You know how many of those had been healthy? I dont want to spoil it, but...
Read 7 tweets
4 May
1/n Unpopular opinion here, but stay with me. As noted there is a vaccine hesitancy problem in many countries (as some like to call it). For example, many report that in the USA there is more availability than people wanting to vaccinate.
2/n So what would governments do: "We are going to stay in lockdown because we cannot achieve 'herd immunity' this way", which if you have followed me this last year you know that not to be true, BUT, dont focus on that.
3/n The hesitancy problem is not gonna go away, those that wont take the vax until trial is over, wont take it no matter what you do. Those that already taken it, are not their problem anymore. What about the middle ground.
Read 7 tweets
30 Apr
Todavía riendome de los que pensaron que las #restricciones iban a ser por 15 días jajajaja... No puedo dejar de reirme. #argentina

Ahh y ya pasamos a Suecia en muertos por millón y ellos ya pasaron la segunda ola...
Ahora si la población supiera que la forma de minimizar mortalidad es hacer #restricciones diferenciadas por 90 días y abrir todo para menores de 50/60 que tienen super baja mortalidad ya hubieran incendiado todo. Te engañaron como a una colegiala...
Y cuando digo TODO, es TODO... boliches, todo!!! Chau máscaras, chau todo... no queres que los vulnerables se sientan seguros en la calle. Y si vivis con un vulnerable, vos tampoco tendrías que sentirte seguro, así minimizas riesgo.
Read 7 tweets
25 Apr
1/n Epidemiological models are underdetermined. What @pjakma is doing is showing exactly that. You have to fight underdetermination with tooth and nails. I have wrote about this before, but as the video shows with that much variability it is pointless. Are there alternatives?
2/n Yes. There are 2 types of models, exploratory and predictive. Usually your model with fit one category, it is very unlikely your will fit in both. Fitted models help you in the predictive realm, but the key point is to realize that under-determination is a thing.
3/n That forces you to have to diminish the amount of moving parts, and try to remove as many high-dimensional stochastic inputs as possible through averaging. That's the approach we took on our work.
Read 12 tweets
18 Apr
1/n A pedido de un amigo que me la pidió en español (no tengo muchos seguidores que puedan hacer uso) va mi análisis sobre la edad de las hospitalizaciones en AMBA. El original acá:
2/n Un amigo me preguntó muy preocupado hace unos días que hay de verdad sobre todos los médicos que salen a decir que cada vez hospitalizan gente más joven en Argentina/AMBA.

El diagnóstico: "Anecdotitis"
3/n Cuando alguien con entrenamiento científico es confrontado con una 'verdad', lo primero que hace es tratar de saber más al nivel de detalle. Ya se lo que estas pensando. Te digo que los científicos son una especie rara y en peligro de extinción (y no aparecen en televisión).
Read 11 tweets
18 Apr
1/n A friend asked me a few days ago what was true about the saying of medics about younger people being hospitalized more often recently in Argentina.
The results are in and the diagnosis is: "Anecdotitis".
2/n Like any scientists that is confronted with some 'truth', you try to figure out the nitty gritty details of it. I know what you are thinking, but scientists are a pretty rare species nowadays. I would say an endangered species.
3/n The first thing anyone with at least 2 fingers of forehead is to go to the case file and look at the distribution of death. Well, not unexpected AT ALL.
Read 9 tweets

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